Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Variations between 1956 and 2016 for Papua New Guinea

The aim of the research was to assess the trend and variations in rainfall and temperature in Papua New Guinea between 1956 and 2016 (60 years) and project the trends from 2017 to 2047 (30 years). Meteorological data obtained from the World Bank Climate Database Headquarters in Washington, United States, from 1956 to 2016 were used in the models. The general linear model analysis was used to investigate the trend in both rainfall and temperature and to predict the future trends. Over the period of study period, 1956 to 2016, the study found that the climatic factors, rainfall and temperature pattern in Papua New Guinea have been changing. It was found that there is an increasing trend in rainfall and temperature. Projections revealed a further increase in rainfall and temperature into the future. Rainfall in Papua New Guinea has been increasing. The projection revealed that rainfall was trending upward with a linear model equation: Rainfall = 0.0093x + 252.38. The increased trend in rainfall suggests that there is an increased trend in evaporation and transpiration. For temperature, although it does not come down to zero and to negative at nights or go up to 40°C or 50°C during the day time as in other countries, the change is clear in the analysis made in the study that there is an increasing trend. If nothing is done to combat the current rate of climate change in the country, the increasing trend in rainfall and temperature would continue. This calls for immediate actions as the issue needs to be addressed in time. Therefore, it is recommended that the government of Papua New Guinea consider incorporating climate change policies into their development plans.