Prediction of BRIC Stock Price Using ARIMA,SutteARIMA,and Holt-Winters

The novel coronavirus has played a disastrous role in many countries worldwide.The outbreak became a major epidemic,engulfing the entire world in lockdown and it is now speculated that its economic impact might be worse than economic deceleration and decline.This paper identifies two different models to capture the trend of closing stock prices in Brazil(BVSP),Russia(IMOEX.ME),India(BSESN),and China(SSE),i.e.,(BRIC)countries.We predict the stock prices for three daily time periods,so appropriate preparations can be undertaken to solve these issues.First,we compared the ARIMA,SutteARIMA and Holt-Winters(H-W)methods to determine the most effective model for predicting data.The stock closing price of BRIC country data was obtained from Yahoo Finance.That data dates from 01 November 2019 to 11 December 2020,then divided into two categories-training data and test data.Training data covers 01 November 2019 to 02 December 2020.Seven days(03December 2020 to 11December 2020)of datawas tested to determine the accuracy of the models using training data as a reference.To measure the accuracy of the models,we obtained the means absolute percentage error(MAPE)and mean square error(MSE).Prediction model Holt-Winters was found to be the most suitable for forecasting the Brazil stock price(BVSP)while MAPE(0.50)and MSE(579272.65)with Holt-Winters(smaller than ARIMA and SutteARIMA),model SutteARIMA was found most appropriate to predict the stock prices of Russia(IMOEX.ME),India(BSESN),and China(SSE)when compared to ARIMA and Holt-Winters.MAPE andMSE with SutteARIMA:Russia(MAPE:0.7;MSE:940.20),India(MAPE:0.90;MSE:207271.16),and China(MAPE:0.72;MSE:786.28).Finally,Holt-Winters predicted the daily forecast values for the Brazil stock price(BVSP)(12 December to 14 December 2020 i.e.,115757.6,116150.9 and 116544.1),while SutteARIMA predicted the daily forecast values of Russia stock prices(IMOEX.ME)(12 December to 14 December 2020 i.e.,3238.06,3241.54 and 3245.01),India stock price(BSESN)(12 December to 14 December 2020 i.e.,.45709.38,45828.71 and 45948.05),and China stock price(SSE)(11 December to 13 December 2020 i.e.,3397.56,3390.59 and 3383.61)for the three time periods.

Fuzzy Decision Model: Evaluating and Selecting Open Banking Business Partners

The finance supply chain has always been a different supply chain compared to product supply chain being a service supply chain.Open Banking(OB)is one of the most important milestones since the beginning of financial technology innovation and service supply chain.As these are activities provided by traditional banks,non-bank financial institutions also provide financial service with access to consumer banking,transactional and other financial data to develop financial applications and services tailored to their customers.The development of financial technology,“Open banking”,promotes financial services to begin this transformation.However,evaluating and selecting open banking business partners from multiple perspectives for banks are underexplored.Thus,the authors in this research proposed a hybrid multicriteria decision-making model which includes a Spherical Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process(SF-AHP)model and a Multi-Attributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis(MAIRCA)model with supports from seasoned domain experts.The contribution of this research is a proposition of a fuzzy decision model for evaluating and selecting open banking business partners.The model successfully determined a suitable open bank provider in order to assist decision makers decide objectively.

Optimization Agricultural Supply Chain:A Case Study of Fertilizer Supplier Selection

The 21st century is associated with the IndustrialRevolution 4.0 and the organic agriculture trend,making the utilization of high-quality fertilizers,abundant nutritional content,economical,and no affect to environment pollution.According to the new concept,clean agricultural production and organic agricultural products are not allowed to excessively use synthetic chemicals such as chemical fertilizers,and plant protection drugs,but priority is to use manure,organic fertilizers,and natural mineral fertilizers.Fertilizer must meet the balanced nutritional requirements of crops,maintain,and improve the fertility of the ground,protect the surrounding ecosystem,and leave harmful effects in agricultural products,products with high quality,safe for users and high economic efficiency for producers.To achieve the above goal,the selection of a fertilizer supplier is an important decision,supporting the supply chain’s sustainable development,fertilizer supplier selection is a multicriteria decision making model,the decision maker must assess all qualitative and quantitative factors.In this paper,the author proposed an integer decision making model including Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP)and Complex Proportional Assessment of Alternatives(COPRAS)for fertilizer supplier selection.The weightings of the criteria are calculated by using FAHP,COPRAS is then applied for ranking some potential fertilizer suppliers.The efficiency of the proposed models is proved by a case study conducted in a farm located in the south of Vietnam.This research is the first fertilizer supplier evaluation and se-lection model in Vietnam by interviewing experts and reviewing the literature.Re-search result is to provide a case study on evaluating supplier in agricultural supply chain utilizing the model proposed by the combination of FAHP and COPRAS models.