Caused by four serotypes,dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide.Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections,assuming that lifelong immunity prevents r...Caused by four serotypes,dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide.Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections,assuming that lifelong immunity prevents reinfections by the same serotype.However,recent findings challenge this assumption,prompting a reevaluation of dengue immunity dynamics.In this study,we develop a within-host modeling framework to explore different scenarios of dengue infections.Unlike previous studies,we go beyond a deterministic framework,considering individual immunological variability.Both deterministic and stochastic models are calibrated using empirical data on viral load and antibody(IgM and IgG)concentrations for all dengue serotypes,incorporating confidence intervals derived from stochastic realizations.With good agreement between the mean of the stochastic realizations and the mean field solution for each model,our approach not only successfully captures primary and heterologous secondary infection dynamics facilitated by antibody-dependent enhancement(ADE)but also provides,for the first time,insights into homotypic reinfection dynamics.Our study discusses the relevance of homotypic reinfections in dengue transmission at the population level,highlighting potential implications for disease prevention and control strategies.展开更多
Vaccines have measurable efficacy obtained first from vaccine trials.However,vaccine efficacy(VE)is not a static measure and long-term population studies are needed to evaluate its performance and impact.COVID-19 vacc...Vaccines have measurable efficacy obtained first from vaccine trials.However,vaccine efficacy(VE)is not a static measure and long-term population studies are needed to evaluate its performance and impact.COVID-19 vaccines have been developed in record time and the currently licensed vaccines are extremely effective against severe disease with higher VE after the full immunization schedule.To assess the impact of the initial phase of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout programmes,we used an extended Susceptible-Hospitalized-Asymptomatic/mild-Recovered(SHAR)model.Vaccination models were proposed to evaluate different vaccine types:vaccine type 1 which protects against severe disease only but fails to block disease transmission,and vaccine type 2 which protects against both severe disease and infection.VE was assumed as reported by the vaccine trials incorporating the difference in efficacy between one and two doses of vaccine administration.We described the performance of the vaccine in reducing hospitalizations during a momentary scenario in the Basque Country,Spain.With a population in a mixed vaccination setting,our results have shown that reductions in hospitalized COVID-19 cases were observed five months after the vaccination rollout started,from May to June 2021.Specifically in June,a good agreement between modelling simulation and empirical data was well pronounced.展开更多
基金Akhil kumar Srivastav acknowledged the financial support by the ministerio de ciencia e innovación(MICINN)of the Spanish Government through the juan de la cierva grant FJC2021-046826-IM.A.acknowledges the financial support by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación(MICINN)of the Spanish Government through the Ramón y Cajal grant RYC 2021-031380-IThis research is supported by the Basque Government through the“Mathematical Modeling Applied to Health”Project,BERC 2022–2025 program and by the Spanish Ministry of Sciences,Innovation and Universities:BCAM Severo Ochoa accreditation CEX 2021-001142-S/MICIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.
文摘Caused by four serotypes,dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide.Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections,assuming that lifelong immunity prevents reinfections by the same serotype.However,recent findings challenge this assumption,prompting a reevaluation of dengue immunity dynamics.In this study,we develop a within-host modeling framework to explore different scenarios of dengue infections.Unlike previous studies,we go beyond a deterministic framework,considering individual immunological variability.Both deterministic and stochastic models are calibrated using empirical data on viral load and antibody(IgM and IgG)concentrations for all dengue serotypes,incorporating confidence intervals derived from stochastic realizations.With good agreement between the mean of the stochastic realizations and the mean field solution for each model,our approach not only successfully captures primary and heterologous secondary infection dynamics facilitated by antibody-dependent enhancement(ADE)but also provides,for the first time,insights into homotypic reinfection dynamics.Our study discusses the relevance of homotypic reinfections in dengue transmission at the population level,highlighting potential implications for disease prevention and control strategies.
基金funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 792494supported by the Basque Government through the(BMTF)“Mathematical Modeling Applied to Health”Project,BERC 2022e2025 program+1 种基金the Spanish Ministry of Sciences,Innovation and Universities:BCAM Severo Ochoa accreditation CEX2021-001142-S/MICIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033the(BIOEF)Fundacion Vasca de Innovacion e Investigacion Sanitaria through the EITB Marathon 2021 call,project reference BIO21/COV/001.
文摘Vaccines have measurable efficacy obtained first from vaccine trials.However,vaccine efficacy(VE)is not a static measure and long-term population studies are needed to evaluate its performance and impact.COVID-19 vaccines have been developed in record time and the currently licensed vaccines are extremely effective against severe disease with higher VE after the full immunization schedule.To assess the impact of the initial phase of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout programmes,we used an extended Susceptible-Hospitalized-Asymptomatic/mild-Recovered(SHAR)model.Vaccination models were proposed to evaluate different vaccine types:vaccine type 1 which protects against severe disease only but fails to block disease transmission,and vaccine type 2 which protects against both severe disease and infection.VE was assumed as reported by the vaccine trials incorporating the difference in efficacy between one and two doses of vaccine administration.We described the performance of the vaccine in reducing hospitalizations during a momentary scenario in the Basque Country,Spain.With a population in a mixed vaccination setting,our results have shown that reductions in hospitalized COVID-19 cases were observed five months after the vaccination rollout started,from May to June 2021.Specifically in June,a good agreement between modelling simulation and empirical data was well pronounced.