A Review of the Mathematical Models for the Impact of Seasonal Weather Variation and Infections on Prey Predator Interactions in Serengeti Ecosystem

Interaction between prey and predator species is a complex and non-linear process. Understanding various phenomena in the dynamics of prey-predator systems is vital to both mathematical ecology and conservation biology. Mathematical models on prey-predator systems have been the hot sport providing important information regarding the interactions of prey and predator species in various ecosystems. In this paper, a review of the available mathematical models on prey-predator systems was done. Our aim was to assess their structure, behaviour, available control strategies, population involved and their ability in predicting the future behaviour of the ecosystems. We observed diversities in the reviewed mathematical models, some model incorporated factors such as drought, harvesting and prey refuge as the factors that affect ecosystems, some ignored the contribution of environmental variations while others considered the variable carrying capacity. Most of the models reviewed have not considered the contribution of diseases and seasonal weather variation in the dynamics of prey predator systems. Some of the reviewed models do not match the real situation in most modelled ecosystems. Thus, to avoid unreliable results, this review reveals the need to incorporate seasonal weather variations and diseases in the dynamics of prey predator systems of Serengeti ecosystem.

Thermal criticality for a reactive gravity driven thin film flow of a third-grade fluid with adiabatic free surface down an inclined plane

This study is devoted to the investigation of thermal criticality for a reactive gravity driven thin film flow of a third-grade fluid with adiabatic free surface down an inclined isothermal plane. It is assumed that the reaction is exothermic under Arrhenius kinetics, neglecting the consumption of the material. The governing non-linear equations for conservation of momentum and energy are obtained and solved by using a new computational approach based on a special type of Hermite-Padé approximation technique implemented in MAPLE. This semi-numerical scheme offers some advantages over solutions obtained with traditional methods such as finite differences, spectral method, and shooting method. It reveals the analytical structure of the solution function. Important properties of overall flow structure including velocity field, temperature field, thermal criticality, and bifurcations are discussed.

Modeling Anthrax with Optimal Control and Cost Effectiveness Analysis

Anthrax is an infection caused by bacteria and it affects both human and animal populations. The disease can be categorized under zoonotic diseases and humans can contract infections through contact with infected animals, ingest contaminated dairy and animal products. In this paper, we developed a mathematical model for anthrax transmission dynamics in both human and animal populations with optimal control. The qualitative solution of the model behaviour was analyzed by determining Rhv, equilibrium points and sensitivity analysis. A vaccination class was incorporated into the model with waning immunity. Local and global stability of the model’s equilibria was found to be locally asymptotically stable whenever Rhv Rhv. It was revealed that reducing animal and human interaction rate, would decrease Rhv. We extended the model to optimal control in order to find the best control strategy in reducing anthrax infections. It showed that the effective strategy in combating the anthrax epidemics is vaccination of animals and prevention of humans.

Mathematical Analysis of Control Strategies of HCV in a Community with Inflow of Infected Immigrants

In this paper, we derive and analyse rigorously a mathematical model of control strategies (screening, education, health care and immunization) of HCV in a community with inflow of infected immigrants. Both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the model is performed with respect to stability of the disease free and endemic equilibria. The results show that the disease free equilibrium is locally stable at threshold parameter less than unity and unstable at threshold parameter greater than unity. Using Lyapunov method, endemic equilibrium is globally stable under certain conditions. Numerical simulation of the model is implemented to investigate the sensitivity of certain key parameters on the HCV model in a community with inflow of infected immigrants. However, analysis shows that screening, education, health care and immunization have the effect of reducing the transmission of the disease in the community.

Computational Modelling of Cholera Bacteriophage with Treatment

This paper examines the computational modelling of cholera bacteriophage with treatment. A nonlinear mathematical model for cholera bacteriophage and treatment is formulated and analysed. The effective reproduction number of the nonlinear model system is calculated by next generation operator method. By using the next generation matrix approach, the disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally stable at threshold parameter less than unity and unstable at threshold parameter greater than unity. Globally, the disease free equilibrium point is not stable due to existence of forward bifurcation at threshold parameter equal to unity. Stability analysis and numerical simulations suggest that the combination of bacteriophage and treatment may contribute to lessening the severity of cholera epidemics by reducing the number of Vibrio cholerae in the environment. Hence with the presence of bacteriophage virus and treatment, cholera is self-limiting in nature.