Assessing the vulnerability of a forest ecosystem to climate change and variability in the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey：future evaluation

This study evaluates the multifactorial spatial modelling used to assess vulnerability of the Du¨ zlerc?am?(Antalya) forest ecosystem to climate change.This was done to produce data,to develop tools to support decisionmaking and the management of vulnerable Mediterranean forest ecosystems affected by climate change,and to increase the ability of these forest ecosystems to adapt to global change.Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected climate indicators,both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier,hotter,more continental and more water-deficient climate.This analysis holds true for all future scenarios,with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030.However,the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become semiarid between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario.All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in this study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site,characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and maquis vegetation,will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation,climate change and variability.

Assessing vulnerability of a forest ecosystem to climate change and variability in the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey

Climate change is a real, pressing and significant global problem. The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, and physiographical and ecological systems. In this study, multifactorial spatial modelling evaluated the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change and variability with regard to land degradation. This produced data and developed tools to support better decision-making and management. As a result, the geographical distribution of Environmental Vulnerability Areas(EVAs) of the forest ecosystem is the estimated Environmental Vulnerability Index(EVI) values. These revealed that, at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement, and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a ‘‘very low’’ degree of vulnerability covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and agricultural lands found principally over the low, flat travertine plateau and the plains to the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs of the forest ecosystem under current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as ‘‘very low’’accounted for 21% of the area of the forest ecosystem,those classed as ‘‘low’’ for 36%, those classed as ‘‘medium’’ for 20%, and those classed as ‘‘high’’ for 24%.

Observed Impacts of Climate Variability on LULC in the Mesopotamia Region

Remote sensing analysis techniques have been investigated extensively,represented by a critical vision,and are used to advance our understanding of the impacts of climate change and variability on the environment.This study aims to find a means of analysis that relies on remote sensing techniques to demonstrate the effects of observed climate variability on Land Use and Land Cover(LULC)of the Mesopotamia region,defined as a historical region located in the Middle East.This study employed the combined analysis of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),Land Surface Temperature(LST),and two statistical analysis methods(Pearson Correlation Analysis,r;Coefficient of Determination,R^(2)),which were applied using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data and observed surface meteorological data from 2000 to 2018.The resulting NDVI images show five LULC classes with NDVI values varying between−0.3 and 0.9.Furthermore,changes in the classified LULC area were compared statistically to those in NDVI values,where a positive relationship was found.Also,when the LST values and temperature are more extreme,the NDVI values were found to be smaller,suggesting a decrease in the density of vegetation cover.A negative correlation was found through Pearson correlation analysis(r=∼−0.64),indicating a direct effect of increased temperatures on LULC.Indeed,this negative relationship between NDVI and LST was proven using R^(2) values,where a two-dimensional scatter plot analysis showed that R^(2) ranges from 0.54 to 0.9.Ultimately,the results obtained from this study reveal changes that may have many prominent effects in the field of LULC classification,accelerating the implications of climate change and variability factors.