The systematic errors of wind field associated with the prediction of Asian summer monsoon and their impact on the monsoon circulation have been studied in this paper. The daily operational analyses and fore-casts (up...The systematic errors of wind field associated with the prediction of Asian summer monsoon and their impact on the monsoon circulation have been studied in this paper. The daily operational analyses and fore-casts (up to day-5) of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India, over the Asian summer monsoon domain for the period June, July and August of 1995 are made use for the purpose. The systematic errors associated with the low level flow delineate, reduction in the strength of trade winds leading to weakening of cross equatorial flow as well as westerly flow over Indian Ocean. The upper level errors connote weakening of Tibetan anticyclone and reduction in the strength of return flow into the Southern Hemisphere. Further, these errors evince growing tendency with increase in the forecast period. Apart from the general underestimation of kinetic energy budget terms, the model forecasts fail to represent the transient eddies. The forecasts show increasing trend in the conversion of eddy to mean kinetic energy. These errors enfeeble Asian summer monsoon circulation with increase in the forecast period. Key words Monsoon - Systematic errors - Kinetic energy budget The author is grateful to the NCMRWF for providing data and computing facilities to carry out the present study.展开更多
文摘The systematic errors of wind field associated with the prediction of Asian summer monsoon and their impact on the monsoon circulation have been studied in this paper. The daily operational analyses and fore-casts (up to day-5) of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India, over the Asian summer monsoon domain for the period June, July and August of 1995 are made use for the purpose. The systematic errors associated with the low level flow delineate, reduction in the strength of trade winds leading to weakening of cross equatorial flow as well as westerly flow over Indian Ocean. The upper level errors connote weakening of Tibetan anticyclone and reduction in the strength of return flow into the Southern Hemisphere. Further, these errors evince growing tendency with increase in the forecast period. Apart from the general underestimation of kinetic energy budget terms, the model forecasts fail to represent the transient eddies. The forecasts show increasing trend in the conversion of eddy to mean kinetic energy. These errors enfeeble Asian summer monsoon circulation with increase in the forecast period. Key words Monsoon - Systematic errors - Kinetic energy budget The author is grateful to the NCMRWF for providing data and computing facilities to carry out the present study.
