With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Iulian Oscillation (MJO) as external forcing on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability is studied. The observational dat...With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Iulian Oscillation (MJO) as external forcing on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability is studied. The observational data are analyzed with Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) and then used to extract MJO signals, which are added into the model to get a new model. After the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) method has been used, the initial errors which can evolve into maximum prediction error, model errors and their join errors are gained and then the Nifio 3 indices and spatial structures of three kinds of errors are investigated. The results mainly show that the observational MJO has little impact on the maximum prediction error of ENSO events and the initial error affects much greater than model error caused by MJO forcing. These demonstrate that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction, which could provide a theoretical foundation for the adaptive data assimilation of the ENSO forecast and contribute to the ENSO target observation.展开更多
为了减少热带气旋(TC)灾害,针对空间太阳能电站(SSPS)可用于主动调控热带气旋的创新应用,文章从美国气象学家Ross N. Hoffman已做的数值模拟出发,初步探讨了用空间太阳能电站调控热带气旋的三大关键技术。研究综述结果可概括为三大关键...为了减少热带气旋(TC)灾害,针对空间太阳能电站(SSPS)可用于主动调控热带气旋的创新应用,文章从美国气象学家Ross N. Hoffman已做的数值模拟出发,初步探讨了用空间太阳能电站调控热带气旋的三大关键技术。研究综述结果可概括为三大关键技术:针对TC调控数值模拟技术的有效性和准确性,SSPS主流设计的微波热辐射系统,激光诱导云播种系统。研究结果说明SSPS调控TC可行且能达到如下目标:减少灾害损失;降低数万人痛苦;发电。展开更多
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41405062
文摘With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Iulian Oscillation (MJO) as external forcing on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability is studied. The observational data are analyzed with Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) and then used to extract MJO signals, which are added into the model to get a new model. After the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) method has been used, the initial errors which can evolve into maximum prediction error, model errors and their join errors are gained and then the Nifio 3 indices and spatial structures of three kinds of errors are investigated. The results mainly show that the observational MJO has little impact on the maximum prediction error of ENSO events and the initial error affects much greater than model error caused by MJO forcing. These demonstrate that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction, which could provide a theoretical foundation for the adaptive data assimilation of the ENSO forecast and contribute to the ENSO target observation.
文摘为了减少热带气旋(TC)灾害,针对空间太阳能电站(SSPS)可用于主动调控热带气旋的创新应用,文章从美国气象学家Ross N. Hoffman已做的数值模拟出发,初步探讨了用空间太阳能电站调控热带气旋的三大关键技术。研究综述结果可概括为三大关键技术:针对TC调控数值模拟技术的有效性和准确性,SSPS主流设计的微波热辐射系统,激光诱导云播种系统。研究结果说明SSPS调控TC可行且能达到如下目标:减少灾害损失;降低数万人痛苦;发电。