The study presented herein is the analysis of Sodar based instrument measurements of air temperature, dew point, and vertical wind speed and direction, recorded at two South Carolina sites, Waties Island in North Myrt...The study presented herein is the analysis of Sodar based instrument measurements of air temperature, dew point, and vertical wind speed and direction, recorded at two South Carolina sites, Waties Island in North Myrtle Beach and in Sumter, and at three atmospheric ground stations. Two of the ground stations are National Weather Service stations near the Sodars and one is a Coastal Carolina University Sea-Econet, as a part of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, MESO program, weather-sensor site on the Coastal Carolina University campus in Conway South Carolina. Objectives of this study are to establish specific values of winds, land and sea temperatures, precipitation and dew points associated with the changes induced by passages of the Sea Breeze Front, and to examine differences in the station-to-station incarnation of the Sea Breeze circulation. Variability from station to station in the nature and timing of Sea Breeze Front passage is found to be a function of relative proximity to the coast with Sea Breeze Front passage occurring earliest at the North Myrtle Beach site (the station at the coast), then at Sumter (~100 km inland) and finally Aiken at >100 km inland. Satellite based estimates of the percentages of onshore penetration distances from the coast are depicted. Wind vectors and air temperatures associated with onsets and passages of the Sea Breeze display robust wind fields directed onshore perpendicular to the coastline. Kinematical descriptors of the Sea Breeze wind particle motions are presented and display coherent stable elliptical motions during the late summer to early fall but are absent during the winter.展开更多
It is a community wide belief that the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) are strongly positively correlated and in lock-step for the characterization of a tropical cyclo...It is a community wide belief that the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) are strongly positively correlated and in lock-step for the characterization of a tropical cyclone (TC)—hurricane season;including how many named TCs will form and how many will become hurricanes and major hurricanes [1]-[4]. In this paper, we decompose the AMO and ACE time series into their internal modes of variability using the Hilbert-Huang Transform REF _Ref386094582 \r \h [5] and the Ensemble Empirical Modal Decomposition (EEMD) REF _Ref386094585 \r \h [6], and look into the relationships that exist between the individual corresponding modes of the AMO and the ACE. We then evaluate the degrees of frequency domain correlations between the internal modes of variability of the AMO and the ACE across the entire record length time series. The 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season, which had been predicted to be “above normal”, with an ACE estimated to be between 122 and 138 by the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), turned out to be one of the quietest on record. The actual 2013 observed ACE was only 33 (unit: 104 kn2) or 29% of the 65 year (1948-2012) average of 103 (with a median of 89.5) and is the 5th lowest value since 1950. Following the visual correlations between the ACE and the AMO in the past, and assuming past is prologue to the future, the “above normal” forecast of the ACE led to a tropical cyclone community wide forecast of a highly active 2013 hurricane season. So why the busted 2013 forecast? This study will address the possible reasons.展开更多
The reported overall rise in global surface temperatures since the latter 19th Century is viewed largely as an atmospheric phenomena. However, we show that the global ocean is an important component in determining glo...The reported overall rise in global surface temperatures since the latter 19th Century is viewed largely as an atmospheric phenomena. However, we show that the global ocean is an important component in determining global surface temperatures. Via an empirical, mathematical methodology, we reveal the intrinsic modes of variability of planetary temperatures over the past 160 years, and find periods of cooling and warming, with multiple modes of variability;seasonal, inter-annual, decadal, multi-decadal and an overall warming trend. Our calculated overall rate of warming differs significantly from the estimate of the Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change, as well as the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We also investigate the modes of variability of recognized climate factors, and find a previously unreported 140 year cycle in two climate system data sets. A relatively large amplitude 60 - 70 year cycle mode appears in all of the climate factors, and may be related to the time scale of the oceanic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This and other oceanic features may modulate global surface temperatures. An empirical relationship between fossil fuel burning and the global surface temperature anomaly time series overall trend emerges from our reduction of the non-stationary, non-linear data.展开更多
文摘The study presented herein is the analysis of Sodar based instrument measurements of air temperature, dew point, and vertical wind speed and direction, recorded at two South Carolina sites, Waties Island in North Myrtle Beach and in Sumter, and at three atmospheric ground stations. Two of the ground stations are National Weather Service stations near the Sodars and one is a Coastal Carolina University Sea-Econet, as a part of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, MESO program, weather-sensor site on the Coastal Carolina University campus in Conway South Carolina. Objectives of this study are to establish specific values of winds, land and sea temperatures, precipitation and dew points associated with the changes induced by passages of the Sea Breeze Front, and to examine differences in the station-to-station incarnation of the Sea Breeze circulation. Variability from station to station in the nature and timing of Sea Breeze Front passage is found to be a function of relative proximity to the coast with Sea Breeze Front passage occurring earliest at the North Myrtle Beach site (the station at the coast), then at Sumter (~100 km inland) and finally Aiken at >100 km inland. Satellite based estimates of the percentages of onshore penetration distances from the coast are depicted. Wind vectors and air temperatures associated with onsets and passages of the Sea Breeze display robust wind fields directed onshore perpendicular to the coastline. Kinematical descriptors of the Sea Breeze wind particle motions are presented and display coherent stable elliptical motions during the late summer to early fall but are absent during the winter.
文摘It is a community wide belief that the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) are strongly positively correlated and in lock-step for the characterization of a tropical cyclone (TC)—hurricane season;including how many named TCs will form and how many will become hurricanes and major hurricanes [1]-[4]. In this paper, we decompose the AMO and ACE time series into their internal modes of variability using the Hilbert-Huang Transform REF _Ref386094582 \r \h [5] and the Ensemble Empirical Modal Decomposition (EEMD) REF _Ref386094585 \r \h [6], and look into the relationships that exist between the individual corresponding modes of the AMO and the ACE. We then evaluate the degrees of frequency domain correlations between the internal modes of variability of the AMO and the ACE across the entire record length time series. The 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season, which had been predicted to be “above normal”, with an ACE estimated to be between 122 and 138 by the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), turned out to be one of the quietest on record. The actual 2013 observed ACE was only 33 (unit: 104 kn2) or 29% of the 65 year (1948-2012) average of 103 (with a median of 89.5) and is the 5th lowest value since 1950. Following the visual correlations between the ACE and the AMO in the past, and assuming past is prologue to the future, the “above normal” forecast of the ACE led to a tropical cyclone community wide forecast of a highly active 2013 hurricane season. So why the busted 2013 forecast? This study will address the possible reasons.
文摘The reported overall rise in global surface temperatures since the latter 19th Century is viewed largely as an atmospheric phenomena. However, we show that the global ocean is an important component in determining global surface temperatures. Via an empirical, mathematical methodology, we reveal the intrinsic modes of variability of planetary temperatures over the past 160 years, and find periods of cooling and warming, with multiple modes of variability;seasonal, inter-annual, decadal, multi-decadal and an overall warming trend. Our calculated overall rate of warming differs significantly from the estimate of the Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change, as well as the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We also investigate the modes of variability of recognized climate factors, and find a previously unreported 140 year cycle in two climate system data sets. A relatively large amplitude 60 - 70 year cycle mode appears in all of the climate factors, and may be related to the time scale of the oceanic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This and other oceanic features may modulate global surface temperatures. An empirical relationship between fossil fuel burning and the global surface temperature anomaly time series overall trend emerges from our reduction of the non-stationary, non-linear data.
