Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals:a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach

Large-scale annual climate indices were used to forecast annual drought conditions in the Maharlu-Bakhtegan watershed,located in Iran,using a neuro-fuzzy model.The Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) was used as a proxy for drought conditions.Among the 45 climate indices considered,eight identified as most relevant were the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO),Atlantic Meridional Mode(AMM),the Bivariate ENSO Time series(BEST),the East Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature(NINO 3.4),the Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature(NINO 4),the North Tropical Atlantic Index(NTA),the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI),and the Tropical Northern Atlantic Index(TNA).These indices accounted for 81% of the variance in the Principal Components Analysis(PCA) method.The Atlantic surface temperature(SST:Atlantic) had an inverse relationship with SPI,and the AMM index had the highest correlation.Drought forecasts of neuro-fuzzy model demonstrate better prediction at a two-year lag compared to a stepwise regression model.

Response of Platanus orientalis leaves to urban pollution by heavy metals

Atmospheric pollution is an important concern in urban environments.The impact of urban pollution on the physiological,biochemical and anatomical properties of leaves of oriental plane(Platanus orientalis L.)was studied.The leaves were collected from an urban site(Tehran,Iran)and a non-urban forest park(Chitgar Forest Park).Anatomical(stomata,parenchyma,and cuticle)and physiological(chlorophyll content,enzyme activities)properties were analyzed.The concentrations of Cd(cadmium),Pb(lead),Ni(nickel),and Cr(chromium)in leaves were significantly higher and Zn(zinc)lower at the urban site relative to the forest park.Chlorophyll a,total chlorophyll,and carotenoid content in leaves of the urban site were significantly less than those of the forest park,but there was no significant difference in chlorophyll b.In addition,the activities of superoxide dismutase,catalase,ascorbate peroxidase,and guaiacol peroxidase in urban leaves were significantly higher than in the leaves of the forest park.In the urban area,leaves experienced a significant decrease in leaf surface area,stomata density,stomata pore area,epidermis,and spongy mesophyll thickness,but a significant increase in cuticle and palisade thicknesses relative to forest park leaves.The increase in enzyme activities may indicate that the trees are attempting to cope with increased reactive oxygen species(ROS)because of pollution-induced stress.Our study suggests that oriental plane trees alter their physiological and anatomical properties when living in a polluted urban environment.

Wood anatomical changes due to uptake of cadmium and lead from contaminated soils in Acer velutinum seedlings

We investigated wood anatomical changes due to uptake and accumulation of cadmium and lead from contaminated soils in Acer velutinum Boiss seedlings. Two-year old seedlings were exposed for 180 days to soil concentrations with varying cadmium and lead concentra- tions. We measured three wood anatomical traits, average vessel area （gm2）, vessel number per square millimetre, and vessel lumen area per- centage （%）. For assessing the cadmium and lead accumulation, we measured the concentrations in the soil, leaf, stem, and root. Average vessel area and vessel lumen area percentage were similar （p〉0.05） in control and treated seedlings. Vessel number per square millimetre showed a decreasing trend from pith to bark in control and treated seed- lings, and the trend was more pronounced in treated seedlings. We con- clude that vessel number per square millimetre in A. velutinum is influ- enced by soil contamination. A. velutinum Boiss is not a suitable species for remediation of soils contaminated by cadmium and lead but it can be used as an indicator of the soil lead contamination, because lead concentrations in seedlings increased with increasing amount of lead in the soil.

Temperature variability in northern Iran during the past 700 years

Warming is significantly affecting ecosystems in dry-warm areas,such as the Middle East[1],but long-term climatic records are often scarce in these regions.One important proxy source of climate data is tree rings,which have contributed to understanding climate changes over the past millennium[1].Under the PAGES2K framework[2],a tree-ring network of the Eurasian continent