Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming

This research reveals relationships between climate variables and inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret located in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains. The study period is 1993–2017. The correlations are identified using statistical methods. Also, a statistical model is constructed, including some climate variables as predictors. Despite the evident decrease of the glacieret's size in the period from the 1950 s onwards, the long-term trends for the last decades have been insignificant. The main climatic factors influencing the inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret are air temperature, precipitation, zonal and meridional winds and relative humidity. With respect to the dynamics in the area of the glacieret, the important trends in the different climate variables are those of the warm period air temperatures and zonal(u) wind. They also determine to a great extent its future development by acting in two opposite directions – rising temperatures in the warm period will lead to a rapid decrease of its area by the end of the melting season, while the change of wind directionfrom west to east in the warm period will increase its area. The influence of the zonal wind in the warm period is explained mainly by the location of the glacieret in the cirque. Generally, the glacieret is tilted downwards from west to east. Thus, westerly winds facilitate blowing away the snow from the surface of the glacieret, assisting its melting in the warm period. Easterly winds do not have such an effect. The combination of the opposite effects of these two most important climate variables leads to the most likely scenario for the future development of the glacieret, according to which by the middle of this century it is expected to turn into a semi-permanent snow patch, which disappears after some summers, and by the end of the century to completely melt every year before the end of the melting season.

Changes in Air Temperatures and Atmosphere Circulation in High Mountainous Parts of Bulgaria for the Period 1941-2008

Changes of air temperatures and atmosphere circulation at three high mountainous stations in Bulgaria are investigated for the period of 1941-2008.The three stations are located on peaks Musala,Cherni vrah and Botev,where air temperature data have good quality.Some missing data were recovered using the method of differences. A significant mean annual air temperature rise happened in high mountainous parts of Bulgaria- the warming is in the order of 0.7°C for the entire period.The increase is very prominent particularly in the last 30 years.Main contributors to this overall tendency are summer months-June,July and August.To some degree,January also could be included in this group.November trend shows temperature rise at the beginning of the investigated period.One of the causes for such a tendency is atmosphere circulation in respective months.It also shows signs of considerable reorganization in both winter and summer.There is an increase of the cases of warm atmosphere patterns typical for winter, summer and autumn seasons in Bulgaria.Meridional circulation has essential significance for air temperatures during the cold half of the year.In January and June atmosphere circulation has a substantial influence on the thermal regime of air in high mountains of Bulgaria.In July,August and November this influence is reduced.There are no cycles in air temperatures for the investigated period.

Genetic climatic regionalization of the Balkan Peninsula using cluster analysis

Sea Level Pressure（SLP） data for the period 1950–2012 at 61 stations located in or around the Balkan Peninsula was used. The main concept is that intra-annual course of SLP represents the best different air masses that are situated over the Balkan Peninsula during the year. The method for differentiation of climatic zones is cluster analysis. A hierarchical clustering technique–average linkage between groups with Pearson correlation for measurement of intervals was employed in the research. The climate of the Balkan Peninsula is transitional between oceanic and continental and also between subtropical and temperate climates. Several major changes in atmospheric circulation over the Balkan Peninsula have happened over the period 1950–2012. There is a serious increase of the influence of the Azores High in the period January–Marchwhich leads to an increase of SLP and enhances oceanic influence. There is an increase of the influence of the north-west extension of the monsoonal low in the period June–September. This leads to more continental climatebut also to more tropical air masses over the Balkan Peninsula. Accordinglythe extent of subtropical climate widens in northern direction. There is an increase of the influence of the Siberian High in the period October–December. This influence covers central and eastern part of the peninsula in October and Novemberand it reaches western parts in December. Thusthe climate becomes more continental.