Fault activation and induced seismicity in geological carbon storage--Lessons learned from recent modeling studies

In the light of current concerns related to induced seismicity associated with geological carbon sequestration(GCS),this paper summarizes lessons learned from recent modeling studies on fault activation,induced seismicity,and potential for leakage associated with deep underground carbon dioxide(CO2) injection.Model simulations demonstrate that seismic events large enough to be felt by humans require brittle fault properties and continuous fault permeability allowing pressure to be distributed over a large fault patch to be ruptured at once.Heterogeneous fault properties,which are commonly encountered in faults intersecting multilayered shale/sandstone sequences,effectively reduce the likelihood of inducing felt seismicity and also effectively impede upward CO2leakage.A number of simulations show that even a sizable seismic event that could be felt may not be capable of opening a new flow path across the entire thickness of an overlying caprock and it is very unlikely to cross a system of multiple overlying caprock units.Site-specific model simulations of the In Salah CO2storage demonstration site showed that deep fractured zone responses and associated microseismicity occurred in the brittle fractured sandstone reservoir,but at a very substantial reservoir overpressure close to the magnitude of the least principal stress.We conclude by emphasizing the importance of site investigation to characterize rock properties and if at all possible to avoid brittle rock such as proximity of crystalline basement or sites in hard and brittle sedimentary sequences that are more prone to injection-induced seismicity and permanent damage.

Influence of hysteretic stress path behavior on seal integrity during gas storage operation in a depleted reservoir

In this study,we numerically investigate the influence of hysteretic stress path behavior on the seal integrity during underground gas storage operations in a depleted reservoir.Our study area is the Honor Rancho Underground Storage Facility in Los Angeles County(California,USA),which was converted into an underground gas storage facility in 1975 after 20 years of oil and gas production.In our simulations,the geomechanical behavior of the sand reservoir is modeled using two models:(1)a linear elastic model(non-hysteretic stress path)that does not take into consideration irreversible deformation,and(2)a plastic cap mechanical model which considers changes in rock elastic properties due to irreversible deformations caused by plastic reservoir compaction(hysteretic stress path).It shows that the irreversible compaction of the geological layer over geologic time and during the reservoir depletion can have important consequences on stress tensor orientation and magnitude.Ignoring depletion-induced irreversible compaction can lead to an over-estimation of the calculation of the maximum working reservoir pressure.Moreover,this irreversible compaction may bring the nearby faults closer to reactivation.However,regardless of the two models applied,the geomechanical analysis shows that for the estimated stress conditions applied in this study,the Honor Rancho Underground Storage Facility is being safely operated at pressures much below what would be required to compromise the seal integrity.

Effects of in situ stress measurement uncertainties on assessment of predicted seismic activity and risk associated with a hypothetical industrial-scale geologic CO_2 sequestration operation

Carbon capture and storage(CCS) in geologic formations has been recognized as a promising option for reducing carbon dioxide(CO) emissions from large stationary sources.However,the pressure buildup inside the storage formation can potentially induce slip along preexisting faults,which could lead to felt seismic ground motion and also provide pathways for brine/COleakage into shallow drinking water aquifers.To assess the geomechanical stability of faults,it is of crucial importance to know the in situ state of stress.In situ stress measurements can provide some information on the stresses acting on faults but with considerable uncertainties.In this paper,we investigate how such uncertainties,as defined by the variation of stress measurements obtained within the study area,could influence the assessment of the geomechanical stability of faults and the characteristics of potential injection-induced seismic events.Our modeling study is based on a hypothetical industrial-scale carbon sequestration project assumed to be located in the Southern San Joaquin Basin in California,USA.We assess the stability on the major(25 km long) fault that bounds the sequestration site and is subjected to significant reservoir pressure changes as a result of 50 years of COinjection.We present a series of geomechanical simulations in which the resolved stresses on the fault were varied over ranges of values corresponding to various stress measurements performed around the study area.The simulation results are analyzed by a statistical approach.Our main results are that the variations in resolved stresses as defined by the range of stress measurements had a negligible effect on the prediction of the seismic risk(maximum magnitude),but an important effect on the timing,the seismicity rate(number of seismic events) and the location of seismic activity.