The transmission dynamics of Buruli ulcer （BU） largely depends on environmental changes. In this paper a deterministic model for the transmission of BU in fluctuating environments is proposed. The model incorporates...The transmission dynamics of Buruli ulcer （BU） largely depends on environmental changes. In this paper a deterministic model for the transmission of BU in fluctuating environments is proposed. The model incorporates periodicity in the disease transmission pathways and the Mycobacterium ulcerans density that are thought to vary seasonally. Two reproduction numbers, the time-averaged reproduction number [R0l and the basic reproduction number R0, are determined and compared. It is shown that the time-averaged reproduction underestimates the number of infections. Numerical simulations confirmed that if R0 〉 1 the infection is sustained seasonally. The model outcome suggests that environmental fluctuations should be taken into consideration in designing policies aimed at BU control and management.展开更多
文摘The transmission dynamics of Buruli ulcer （BU） largely depends on environmental changes. In this paper a deterministic model for the transmission of BU in fluctuating environments is proposed. The model incorporates periodicity in the disease transmission pathways and the Mycobacterium ulcerans density that are thought to vary seasonally. Two reproduction numbers, the time-averaged reproduction number [R0l and the basic reproduction number R0, are determined and compared. It is shown that the time-averaged reproduction underestimates the number of infections. Numerical simulations confirmed that if R0 〉 1 the infection is sustained seasonally. The model outcome suggests that environmental fluctuations should be taken into consideration in designing policies aimed at BU control and management.
