China has wimessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China＇s grow...China has wimessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China＇s growth slowdown since 2008 up to 2013 using a growth accounting model in a systematic way. It is found that China ＂s growth slowdown since 2008 almost completely comes from a sharp slowdown in total factor productivity growth. During this period, the positive effect on growth from expanding investment has been completely offset by the negative effect of the slowdown in total factor productivity growth. Currently, China＇s economy has slid into the Solow downward path. Under these circumstances, a soft landing is completely infeasible. Unless the Chinese Government implements substantial rebalancing and comprehensive and in-depth market-oriented reform, accompanied by large-scale de-investment （decreasing in the ratio of investment in GDP） and massive employment adjustment, China will be unable to avoid the Solow downward path, and a hard landing in investment will be inevitable in the near future.展开更多
China＇s foreign trade has entered a new stage, marked by some profound changes since 2003. After 5 years ＇consecutive high growth, China＇s foreign trade experienced a significant slowdown in growth following the on...China＇s foreign trade has entered a new stage, marked by some profound changes since 2003. After 5 years ＇consecutive high growth, China＇s foreign trade experienced a significant slowdown in growth following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. The purpose of this article is to present a review of the development in China＇s foreign trade over the past l O years, and to explore important changes that have taken place during this period of time. A majorfinding of the presentpaper is that the traditional forces driving the high export growth in China, that is, low-cost labor, low-cost resources and low-cost money, have been disappearing. The policy implication is that over the next l O-15 years, the most important conditions for sustaining high export growth will be promoting the development and export of private enterprises in traditional heaw industries and high-technology industries, and relying on technological progress and high produc6vity to propel export expansion.展开更多
The central theme of this paper ls that Lnlna s macroeconomic development into three distinct stages with significant trend changes. Market-oriented reform and opening to the outside world provide main driving forces ...The central theme of this paper ls that Lnlna s macroeconomic development into three distinct stages with significant trend changes. Market-oriented reform and opening to the outside world provide main driving forces for the convergence. However, the gradual reform and some inappropriate policies have caused serious ups and downs in China＇s macroeconomic performance.展开更多
文摘China has wimessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China＇s growth slowdown since 2008 up to 2013 using a growth accounting model in a systematic way. It is found that China ＂s growth slowdown since 2008 almost completely comes from a sharp slowdown in total factor productivity growth. During this period, the positive effect on growth from expanding investment has been completely offset by the negative effect of the slowdown in total factor productivity growth. Currently, China＇s economy has slid into the Solow downward path. Under these circumstances, a soft landing is completely infeasible. Unless the Chinese Government implements substantial rebalancing and comprehensive and in-depth market-oriented reform, accompanied by large-scale de-investment （decreasing in the ratio of investment in GDP） and massive employment adjustment, China will be unable to avoid the Solow downward path, and a hard landing in investment will be inevitable in the near future.
文摘China＇s foreign trade has entered a new stage, marked by some profound changes since 2003. After 5 years ＇consecutive high growth, China＇s foreign trade experienced a significant slowdown in growth following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. The purpose of this article is to present a review of the development in China＇s foreign trade over the past l O years, and to explore important changes that have taken place during this period of time. A majorfinding of the presentpaper is that the traditional forces driving the high export growth in China, that is, low-cost labor, low-cost resources and low-cost money, have been disappearing. The policy implication is that over the next l O-15 years, the most important conditions for sustaining high export growth will be promoting the development and export of private enterprises in traditional heaw industries and high-technology industries, and relying on technological progress and high produc6vity to propel export expansion.
文摘The central theme of this paper ls that Lnlna s macroeconomic development into three distinct stages with significant trend changes. Market-oriented reform and opening to the outside world provide main driving forces for the convergence. However, the gradual reform and some inappropriate policies have caused serious ups and downs in China＇s macroeconomic performance.
