Crop models are widely used to predict plant growth,water input requirements,and yield.However,existing models are very complex and require hundreds of variables to perform accurately.Due to these shortcomings,large-s...Crop models are widely used to predict plant growth,water input requirements,and yield.However,existing models are very complex and require hundreds of variables to perform accurately.Due to these shortcomings,large-scale applications of crop models are limited.In order to address these limitations,reliable crop models were developed using a deep neural network(DNN)–a new approach for predicting crop yields.In addition,the number of required input variables was reduced using three common variable selection techniques:namely Bayesian variable selection,Spearman's rank correlation,and Principal Component Analysis Feature Extraction.The reduced-variableDNN modelswere capable of estimating future crop yields for 10,000,000 differentweather and irrigation scenarios while maintaining comparable accuracy levels to the original model that used all input variables.To establish clear superiority of the methodology,the results were also compared with a very recent feature selection algorithm called min-redundancy max-relevance(mRMR).The results of this study showed that the Bayesian variable selection was the best method for achieving the aforementioned goals.Specifically,the final Bayesian-based DNN model with a structure of 10 neurons in 5 layers performed very similarly(78.6%accuracy)to the original DNN cropmodel with 400 neurons in 10 layers,even though the size of the neural network was reduced by 80-fold.This effort can help promote sustainable agricultural intensifications through the large-scale application of crop models.展开更多
基金supported by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture,Hatch project 1019654.
文摘Crop models are widely used to predict plant growth,water input requirements,and yield.However,existing models are very complex and require hundreds of variables to perform accurately.Due to these shortcomings,large-scale applications of crop models are limited.In order to address these limitations,reliable crop models were developed using a deep neural network(DNN)–a new approach for predicting crop yields.In addition,the number of required input variables was reduced using three common variable selection techniques:namely Bayesian variable selection,Spearman's rank correlation,and Principal Component Analysis Feature Extraction.The reduced-variableDNN modelswere capable of estimating future crop yields for 10,000,000 differentweather and irrigation scenarios while maintaining comparable accuracy levels to the original model that used all input variables.To establish clear superiority of the methodology,the results were also compared with a very recent feature selection algorithm called min-redundancy max-relevance(mRMR).The results of this study showed that the Bayesian variable selection was the best method for achieving the aforementioned goals.Specifically,the final Bayesian-based DNN model with a structure of 10 neurons in 5 layers performed very similarly(78.6%accuracy)to the original DNN cropmodel with 400 neurons in 10 layers,even though the size of the neural network was reduced by 80-fold.This effort can help promote sustainable agricultural intensifications through the large-scale application of crop models.
