中国地球气候系统模式的发展及其模拟和预估

地球气候系统模式是开展多学科、多圈层集成研究的重要平台,其发展是国际地学领域特别是全球变化领域竞争的前沿。中国的地球气候系统模式研发工作始于20世纪80年代,最近10年得到快速发展。研发格局上已经形成中国科学院、有关部委和高校三足鼎立的局面。文中在简要回顾中国地球气候系统模式早期发展历史的基础上,总结了中国参加第6次耦合模式比较计划的9个地球气候系统模式的技术特点,初步评估了中国4个模式对全球和东亚气候模拟的基本性能,分析了其在4种共享社会经济路径情景下对全球降水与温度的预估变化及其与平衡态气候敏感度的联系。最后,结合国际态势,从发展的角度提出未来中国气候模式研发工作需要加强的8个方向。

GNSS漂流浮标实时在线波浪测量技术及其软件实现

波浪是一种重要且复杂的海洋水文要素,对海浪进行稳定、长期、有效的监测具有重要意义。针对传统波浪观测设备价格昂贵、实时性差的问题,本文研究了基于全球导航卫星系统(Global Navigation Satellite System, GNSS)载波相位历元差分算法的漂流浮标实时在线波浪测量技术及其实现方法,包括硬件选型及组成、实时在线软件的设计思路和工作原理。通过比较分析近海及远海试验的实时回传测波结果,验证了GNSS漂流浮标实时在线波浪测量技术及其软件的可行性和精确性。在近海试验中,对比2套测试浮标实时回传结果与Datawell DWR-G4浮标事后导出结果,表明两者有效波高差值的均方根(Root Mean Square, RMS)分别为6 cm和4 cm,优于主流测波浮标产品技术指标(0.1 m+5%H,H为波高),两者平均周期差异RMS分别为0.48 s和0.49 s,要素反演性能良好。在远海试验中,4套测试浮标实时回传的有效波高和平均周期结果与再分析产品呈现出较高的一致性。

Surface current field and seasonal variability in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions derived from satellite-tracked drifter data

The muhiyear averaged surface current field and seasonal variability in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions are studied. The data used are trajectories and （1/4） ° latitude by （1/4） ° longitude mean currents derived from 323 Argos drifters deployed by Chinese institutions and world ocean circulation experiment from 1979 to 2003. The results show that the Kuroshio surface path adapts well to the western boundary topography and exhibits six great turnings. The branching occurs frequently near anticyclonic turnings rather than near cyclonic ones. In the Luzon Strait, the surface water intrusion into the South China Sea occurs only in fall and winter. The Kuroshio surface path east of Taiwan, China appears nearly as straight lines in summer, fall, and winter, when anticyclonic eddies coexist on its right side; while the path may cyclonically turning in spring when no eddy exists. The Kuroshio intrusion northeast of Taiwan often occurs in fall and winter, but not in summer. The running direction, width and velocity of the middle segment of the Kuroshio surface currents in the East China Sea vary seasonally. The northward intrusion of the Kuroshio surface water southwest of Kyushu occurs in spring and fall, but not in summer. The northmost position of the Kuroshio surface path southwest of Kyushu occurs in fall, but never goes beyond 31 °N. The northward surface current east of the Ryukyu Islands exists only along Okinawa-Amami Islands from spring to fall. In particular, it appears as an arm of an anti- cyclonic eddy in fall.

Long baroclinic Rossby waves with periods of about 500 d near 20°N in the northwest Pacific Ocean

On the basis of maps of sea level anomalies data set from October 1992 to January 2004, pronounced low frequency variations with periods of about 500 d are detected in the area near 20°N from 160°W to 130°E. A linear two-layer model is employed to explain the mechanism. It is found that the first-mode long baroclinic Rossby waves at 20°N in the northwest Pacific propagate westward in the form of free waves at a speed of about 10.3 cm/s. This confirms that the observed low frequency variabilities appear as baroclinic Rossby waves. It further shows that these low frequency variabilities around 20°N in the northwest Pacific can potentially be predicted with a lead up to 900 d.

Evaluation on data assimilation of a global high resolution wave-tide-circulation coupled model using the tropical Pacific TAO buoy observations

In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean（TAO） during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolution of wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by The First Institute of Oceanography（FIOCOM model） is 0.1°×0.1°, and ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is used to assimilate the sea surface temperature（SST）, sea level anomaly（SLA） and Argo temperature/salinity profiles. The simulation results with and without data assimilation are examined. First, the overall statistic errors of model results are analyzed. The scatter diagrams of model simulations versus observations and corresponding error probability density distribution show that the errors of all the observed variables, including the temperature, isotherm depth of 20°C（D20）, salinity and two horizontal component of velocity are reduced to some extent with a maximum improvement of 54% after assimilation. Second, time-averaged variables are used to investigate the horizontal and vertical structures of the model results. Owing to the data assimilation, the biases of the time-averaged distribution are reduced more than70% for the temperature and D20 especially in the eastern Pacific. The obvious improvement of D20 which represents the upper mixed layer depth indicates that the structure of the temperature after the data assimilation becomes more close to the reality and the vertical structure of the upper ocean becomes more reasonable. At last,the physical processes of time series are compared with observations. The time evolution processes of all variables after the data assimilation are more consistent with the observations. The temperature bias and RMSE of D20 are reduced by 76% and 56% respectively with the data assimilation. More events during this period are also reproduced after the data assimilation. Under the condition of strong 2014/2016 El Ni？o, the Equatorial Undercurrent（EUC） from the TAO is gradually increased during August to November in 2014, and followed by a decreasing process. Since the improvement of the structure in the upper ocean, these events of the EUC can be clearly found in the assimilation results. In conclusion, the data assimilation in this global high resolution model has successfully reduced the model biases and improved the structures of the upper ocean, and the physical processes in reality can be well produced.

The prediction on the 2015/16 El Nino event from the perspective of FIO-ESM

Recently atmospheric and oceanic observations indicate the tropical Pacific is at the El Ni？o condition. However,it＇s not clear whether this El Ni？o event of this year is comparable to the very strong one of 1997/98 which brought huge influence on the whole world. In this study, based on the Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter（EAKF）assimilation scheme and First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model（FIO-ESM）, the assimilation system is setup, which can provide reasonable initial conditions for prediction. And the hindcast results suggest the skill of El Ni？o-Southern Oscillation（ENSO） prediction is comparable to other dynamical coupled models. Then the prediction for 2015/16 El Ni？o by using FIO-ESM is started from 1 November 2015. The ensemble results indicate that the 2015/16 El Ni？o will continue to be strong. By the end of 2015, the strongest strength is very like more than 2.0°C and the ensemble mean strength is 2.34°C, which indicates 2015/16 El Ni？o event will be very strong but slightly less than that of 1997/98 El Ni？o event（2.40°C） calculated relative a climatology based on the years1992–2014. The prediction results also suggest 2015/16 El Ni？o event will be a transition to ENSO-neutral level in the early spring（FMA） 2016, and then may transfer to La Ni？a in summer 2016.

Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models

Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

The long-term prediction of the oil-contaminated water from the Sanchi collision in the East China Sea

The condensate and bunker oil leaked from the Sanchi collision would cause a persistent impact on marine ecosystems in the surrounding areas. The long-term prediction for the distribution of the oil-polluted water and the information for the most affected regions would provide valuable information for the oceanic environment protection and pollution assessment. Based on the operational forecast system developed by the First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, we precisely predicted the drifting path of the oil tanker Sanchi after its collision. Trajectories of virtual oil particles show that the oil leaked from the Sanchi after it sank is mainly transported to the northeastern part of the sink location, and quickly goes to the open ocean along with the Kuroshio. Risk probability analysis based on the outcomes from the operational forecast system for years 2009 to2017 shows that the most affected area is at the northeast of the sink location.

The numerical investigation of seasonal variation of the cold water mass in the Beibu Gulf and its mechanisms

A wave-tide-circulation coupled model based on the Princeton Ocean Model is established to explore the seasonal variation of the cold water mass in the Beibu Gulf and its mechanisms. The results show that the cold water mass starts forming in March, reaches the maximum strength during June and July, and fades away since October. Strong mixing in winter transports the cold water from sea surface to bottom. The cold water mass remains in the bottom layer as the thermocline strengthens during spring, except for the shallow water where the themocline is broken by strong tidal mixing, which gradually separate the cold water mass from its surrounding warm water. Further analysis on the ocean current and stream function confirms that the cold water mass in the Beibu Gulf is locally developed, with an anticlockwise circulation caused by a strong temperature gradient. Sensitivity experiments reveal that the cold water mass is controlled by the sea surface heat flux, while the terrain and tidal mixing also play important roles.

A numerical study of summertime expansion pattern of Changjiang (Yangtze) River diluted water

Observations show that during summer especially in August, the northward expansion of the Changjiang（Yangtze） River diluted water （CRDW） is blocked in the vicinity of the Changjiang Estuary. To explain this phenomenon, Princeton ocean model （POM） is applied to simulate the summertime expansion pattern of CRDW. Numerical experiments show that to the north of the Changjiang Estuary, a tide-induced temperature front of a cold water centered at （34°N, I22.5°E） plays the key role in determining the expansion pattern of CRDW. This front splits the CRDW into two parts： the main part expands northeastward, and the other small part expands northwestward off the coast of Jiangsu Province, China.

Energy budget of surface waves in the global ocean

Mechanical energy input from atmosphere and losses from wave-breaking dissipation of sea surface waves are estimated by a direct scheme. This scheme is based on the integration in the wavenumber space of the wind input and breaking dissipation source functions of the MASNUM wave model. The global amount of wind energy input, averaged in 2005, is about 57 TW, and the wave-breaking dissipation summed in deep-water is about 33 TW, over a half of the wind energy input. The residual may be dissipated by beach processes. Global distributions of the energy input and breaking dissipation concentrate in the westerlies of the Southern Hemisphere.

A review of progress in coupled ocean-atmosphere model developments for ENSO studies in China

El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.

Causes for different spatial distributions of minimum Arctic sea-ice extent in 2007 and 2012

Satellite records show the minimum Arctic sea ice extents （SIEs） were observed in the Septembers of 2007 and 2012, but the spatial distributions of sea ice concentration reduction in these two years were quite different. Atmospheric circulation pattern and the upper-ocean state in summer were investigated to explain the difference. By employing the ice-temperature and ice-specific humidity （SH） positive feedbacks in the Arctic Ocean, this paper shows that in 2007 and 2012 the higher surface air temperature （SAT） and sea level pressure （SLP） accompanied by more surface SH and higher sea surface temperature （SST）, as a consequence, the strengthened poleward wind was favorable for melting summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years. SAT was the dominant factor influencing the distribution of Arctic sea ice melting. The correlation coefficient is -0.84 between SAT anomalies in summer and the Arctic SIE anomalies in autumn. The increase SAT in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012 corresponded to a quicker melting of sea ice in the Arctic. The SLP and related wind were promoting factors connected with SAT. Strengthening poleward winds brought warm moist air to the Arctic and accelerated the melting of sea ice in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012. Associated with the rising air temperature, the higher surface SH and SST also played a positive role in reducing summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years, which form two positive feedbacks mechanism.

A numerical study of the wintertime double-warm-tongue structure in the Huanghai(Yellow) Sea

Satellite remote sensing observations show that during winter, sea surface temperature （SST） presents the structure of double warm tongues in the Huanghai Sea trough： the western and the eastern warm tongues. Numerical experiments based on POM are carried out to study the forming mechanism of this thermal structure and its relation to the Huanghai Sea Warm Current （HSWC）. The control experiment reproduces this phenomenon quite well, and comparing experiments investigate the effect of wind and tide. It is found that the western warm tongue is mainly caused by the HSWC, which can be strengthened by wintertime southward wind. The eastern warm tongue develops under the influence of an anti-clockwise circulation which is induced by the temperature front of the Huanghai Sea Cold Water Mass （HSCWM） in summer and autumn. In the eastern portion of this circulation, the northward current carries warm water to the north, forming the eastern warm tongue, which remains till winter.

Ocean temperature responses to Typhoon Mstsa in the East China Sea

The MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled model, with 21 layers in the vertical and （1/8） °horizontal resolution, was employed to investigate the oceanic responses to Typhoon Mstsa which traversed the East China Sea （ECS） during the period of 4 - 6 August, 2005. Numerical experiment results are analyzed and compared with observation. The responses of the sea surface temperature （SST）, in a focused area of （27° -29°N, 121° - 124°E）, include heating and cooling stages. The heating is mainly due to warm Kuroshio water transportation and downwelling due to the water accumulation. In the cooling stage, the amplitude of the simulated cold wake （ -3℃ ）, located on the right side of this typhoon track, is compared quite well with that of the satellite observed SST data. The wave-induced mixing（Bv） plays a key role for the SST cooling. Bv still plays a leading role, which accounts for 36%, for the ocean temperature drop in the upper ocean of 0 - 40 m, while the upwelling is responsible for 84% of the cooling for the lower layer of 40 - 70 m. The mixed layer depth （MLD） increased quickly from 28 to 50 m in the typhoon period. However, the simulated MLD without the wave-induced vertical mixing, evolution from 13 to 32 m, was seriously underestimated. The surface wave is too important to be ignored for the ocean responses to a typhoon.

Historical simulation and twenty-first century prediction of oceanic CO_2 sink and pH change

A global ocean carbon cycle model based on the ocean general circulation model POP and the improved biogeochemical model OCMIP-2 is employed to simulate carbon cycle processes under the historically observed atmospheric CO 2 concentration and different future scenarios （called Rep- resentative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs）. The RCPs in this paper follow the design of Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） for the Fifth Assessment Report （AR5）. The model results show that the ocean absorbs CO 2 from atmosphere and the absorbability will continue in the 21st century under the four RCPs. The net air-sea CO 2 flux increased during the historical time and reached 1.87 Pg/a （calculated by carbon） in 2005; however, it would reach peak and then decrease in the 21st century. The ocean absorbs CO 2 mainly in the mid latitude, and releases CO 2 in the equator area. However, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current （ACC） area the ocean would change from source to sink under the rising CO 2 concentration, including RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In 2100, the anthropogenic carbon would be transported to the 40 S in the Atlantic Ocean by the North Atlantic Deep Water （NADW）, and also be transported to the north by the Antarctic Bottom Water （AABW） along the Antarctic continent in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The ocean pH value is also simulated by the model. The pH decreased by 0.1 after the industrial revolution, and would continue to decrease in the 21st century. For the highest concentration sce- nario of RCP8.5, the global averaged pH would decrease by 0.43 to reach 7.73 due to the absorption of CO 2 from atmosphere.

The improvement of the one-dimensional Mellor-Yamada and K-profile parameterization turbulence schemes with the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing

Both the level 2.5 Mellor-Yamada turbulence closure scheme （MY） and K-profile parameterization （KPP） are popularly used by the ocean modeling community. The MY and the KPP are improved through including the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing （Bv）, and the improved schemes were tested by using continuous data at the Papa ocean weather station （OWS） during 1961-1965. The numerical results showed that the Bv can make the temperature simulations fit much better with the continuous data from Papa Sta- tion. The two improved schemes overcame the shortcomings of predicting too shallow upper mixed layer depth and consequently overheated sea surface temperature during summertime, which are in fact com- mon problems for all turbulence closure models. Statistical analysis showed that the Bv effectively reduced the mean absolute error and root mean square error of the upper layer temperature and increased the corre- lation coefficient between simulation and the observation. Furthermore, the performance of vertical mixing induced by shear instability and the Bv is also compared. Both the temperature structure and its seasonal cycle significantly improved by including the Bv, regardless of whether shear instability was included or not, especially for the KPP mixing scheme, which suggested that Bv played a dominant role in the upper ocean where the mean current was relatively weak, such as at Papa Station. These results may provide a clue to improve ocean circulation models.

Scattering Process of Internal Waves Propagating over a Subcritical Strait Slope onto a Shelf Region

The scattering process, which means the redistribution of energy fluy in modenumber space, is analyzed for internal waves propagating from the abyssal ocean onto a subcritical strait slope and then a shelf region. In light of Wunsch's work, the waves are analytically expressed as superimposition of eigensolutions. Two parameters have evident effects on the distribution of energy flux in the shelf region: one is the ratio of water depth in the shelf region to that in the abyssal ocean and the other is the ratio of the slope of the internal tide rays to the topographic slope. Generally, there are two patterns of energy flux distribution: the energy flux is focused around one modenumber or focused around two modenumbers. In any case, the range of modenumbers where energy flux is distributed is narrow.

Response of Internal Waves to 2005 Typhoon Damrey over the Northwestern Shelf of the South China Sea

Continuous observation of sea water temperature and current was made at Wenchang Station(19°35′N,112°E) in 2005. The data collected indicate vigorous internal waves of both short periods and tidal and near-inertial periods. The temperature and current time series during 18-30 September were examined to describe the upper ocean internal wave field response to Typhoon Damrey(0518) . The strong wind associated with the typhoon,which passed over the sea area about 45 km south of Wenchang Station on 25 September,deepened the mixed layer depth remarkably. It decreased the mixed layer temperature while increasing the deep layer temperature,and intensified the near-inertial and high-frequency fluctuations of temperature and current. Power spectra of temperature and current time series indicate significant deviations from those obtained by using the deep ocean internal wave models characterized by a power law. The frequency spectra were dominated by three energetic bands:around the inertial frequency(7.75× 10-6 Hz) ,tidal frequencies(1.0×10-5 to 2.4×10-5 Hz) ,and between 1.4×10-4 and 8.3×10-4 Hz. Dividing the field data into three phases(before,during and after the typhoon) ,we found that the typhoon enhanced the kinetic energy in nearly all the frequency bands,especially in the surface water. The passage of Damrey made a major contribution to the horizontal kinetic energy of the total surface current variances. The vertical energy density distribution,with its peak value at the surface,was an indication that the energy injected by the strong wind into the surface current could penetrate downward to the thermocline.

The performance of a z-level ocean model in modeling the global tide

The performance of a z-level ocean model, the Modular Ocean Model Version 4（MOM4）, is evaluated in terms of simulating the global tide with different horizontal resolutions commonly used by climate models. The performance using various sets of model topography is evaluated. The results show that the optimum filter radius can improve the simulated co-tidal phase and that better topography quality can lead to smaller rootmean square（RMS） error in simulated tides. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to test the impact of spatial resolutions. It is shown that the model results are sensitive to horizontal resolutions. The calculated absolute mean errors of the co-tidal phase show that simulations with horizontal resolutions of 0.5° and 0.25° have about 35.5% higher performance compared that with 1° model resolution. An internal tide drag parameterization is adopted to reduce large system errors in the tidal amplitude. The RMS error of the best tuned 0.25° model compared with the satellite-altimetry-constrained model TPXO7.2 is 8.5 cm for M_2. The tidal energy fluxes of M_2 and K_1 are calculated and their patterns are in good agreement with those from the TPXO7.2. The correlation coefficients of the tidal energy fluxes can be used as an important index to evaluate a model skill.