Multi-factor sensitivity analysis on the stability of submarine hydrate-bearing slope

There are many factors affecting the instability of the submarine hydrate-bearing slope (SHBS),and the interaction with hydrate is very complicated.In this paper,the mechanical mechanism of the static liquefaction and instability of submarine slope caused by the dissociation of natural gas hydrate (NGH) resulting in the rapid increase of pore pressure of gas hydrate-bearing sediments (GHBS) and the decrease of effective stress are analyzed based on the time series and type of SHBS.Then,taking the typical submarine slope in the northern South China Sea as an example,four important factors affecting the stability of SHBS are selected,such as the degree of hydrate dissociation,the depth of hydrate burial,the thickness of hydrate,and the depth of seawater.According to the principle of orthogonal method,25 orthogonal test schemes with 4 factors and 5 levels are designed and the safety factors of submarine slope stability of each scheme are calculated by using the strength reduction finite element method.By means of the orthogonal design range analysis and the variance analysis,sensitivity of influential factors on stability of SHBS are obtained.The results show that the degree of hydrate dissociation is the most sensitive,followed by hydrate burial depth,the thickness of hydrate and the depth of seawater.Finally,the concept of gas hydrate critical burial depth is put forward according to the influence law of gas hydrate burial depth,and the numerical simulation for specific submarine slope is carried out,which indicates the existence of critical burial depth.

Stability analysis of submarine slopes in the area of the test production of gas hydrate in the South China Sea

In this paper, the mechanical properties of gas hydrate-bearing sediments (GHBS) were summarized and the instability mechanism of submarine hydrate-bearing slope (SHBS) was analyzed under the background of the test production of gas hydrate in the northern part of the South China Sea. The strength reduction finite element method (SRFEM) was introduced to the stability analysis of submarine slopes for the safety of the test production. Two schemes were designed to determine the physical and mechanical parameters of four target wells. Through the division of the hydrate dissociation region and the design of four working conditions, the range and degree of hydrate dissociation at different stages during the test production were simulated. Based on the software ABAQUS, 37 FEM models of SHBS were set up to analyze and assess the stability of the submarine slopes in the area of the test production. Necessary information such as safety factors, deformation, and displacement were obtained at different stages and under different working conditions. According to the calculation results, the submarine slope area is stable before the test production, and the safety factors almost remains the same during and after the test production. All these indicate that the test production has no obvious influence on the area of the test production and the submarine slopes in the area are stable during and after the test production.