This paper studies the employment effect of China’s possible implementation of zero tariffs by comparing China s most-favored-nation tariffs and the tariff schedules of China’s signed free trade agreements(FTAs)with...This paper studies the employment effect of China’s possible implementation of zero tariffs by comparing China s most-favored-nation tariffs and the tariff schedules of China’s signed free trade agreements(FTAs)with the tariff concessions in a typical high-standard FTA.It finds that there is a large gap between China s current tariff status and a high-standard FTA,and the implementation of zero tariffs in China would have a significant negative impact on employment in some industries.However,the employment effect of implementing zero tariffs is heterogeneous.Analysis at the industrial level shows that,although employment would drop in a few industries as a result of the implementation of zero tariffs,more jobs would be created in most industries.The overall employment effect of a zero tariff policy would be positive,creating an estimated 8.05 million jobs in China.Therefore,China should consider the adjustment costs brought by the labor movement in different industries and introduce relevant policies to deal with the employment shocks caused by zero tariffs.展开更多
The appearance of new product varieties and improvements in the quality of goods have both played key roles in the rapid growth of China＇s exports. However, these two important elements have not been formally integ...The appearance of new product varieties and improvements in the quality of goods have both played key roles in the rapid growth of China＇s exports. However, these two important elements have not been formally integrated into the demand equations for China＇s exports. As we demonstrate in this paper, income elasticity will be underestimated if new varieties of goods and quality improvements are omitted in price index and quantity index calculations, which are necessary for estimating the export demand function. Moreover, the faster new product varieties enter export markets, the greater the underestimation will be. In this paper, we develop an export demand equation that takes into account newproduct varieties and improvements in quality, and then calculate the demand function for China＇s exports using the data from 1992 to 2006. According to our estimation, the short-term income elasticity of demand for China ＂s exports is approximately 2.34, and the short-term price elasticity is approximately-0. 65. Our estimation predicts an increase in China＇s export value in the case of an RMB appreciation or export rebate rates reduction in the short term, due to the low price elasticity of China＇s exports, whose absolute value is less than 1. Our findings are novel and could have significant policy implications.展开更多
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund of China(No.16CGJ001).
文摘This paper studies the employment effect of China’s possible implementation of zero tariffs by comparing China s most-favored-nation tariffs and the tariff schedules of China’s signed free trade agreements(FTAs)with the tariff concessions in a typical high-standard FTA.It finds that there is a large gap between China s current tariff status and a high-standard FTA,and the implementation of zero tariffs in China would have a significant negative impact on employment in some industries.However,the employment effect of implementing zero tariffs is heterogeneous.Analysis at the industrial level shows that,although employment would drop in a few industries as a result of the implementation of zero tariffs,more jobs would be created in most industries.The overall employment effect of a zero tariff policy would be positive,creating an estimated 8.05 million jobs in China.Therefore,China should consider the adjustment costs brought by the labor movement in different industries and introduce relevant policies to deal with the employment shocks caused by zero tariffs.
基金financial support from the International Studies Division of the Chinese Acadcmy of Social Sciences
文摘The appearance of new product varieties and improvements in the quality of goods have both played key roles in the rapid growth of China＇s exports. However, these two important elements have not been formally integrated into the demand equations for China＇s exports. As we demonstrate in this paper, income elasticity will be underestimated if new varieties of goods and quality improvements are omitted in price index and quantity index calculations, which are necessary for estimating the export demand function. Moreover, the faster new product varieties enter export markets, the greater the underestimation will be. In this paper, we develop an export demand equation that takes into account newproduct varieties and improvements in quality, and then calculate the demand function for China＇s exports using the data from 1992 to 2006. According to our estimation, the short-term income elasticity of demand for China ＂s exports is approximately 2.34, and the short-term price elasticity is approximately-0. 65. Our estimation predicts an increase in China＇s export value in the case of an RMB appreciation or export rebate rates reduction in the short term, due to the low price elasticity of China＇s exports, whose absolute value is less than 1. Our findings are novel and could have significant policy implications.
