Dynamic simulation of China’s water-grain-meat system and evaluation of its support capability based on water footprint theory

The supply capacity of water resources,food and meat products is of great importance to the people’s livelihood of a country.In recent years,although China has introduced many policies on water resources and grain production,the current situation of China’s food self-sufficiency and imbalance between supply and demand of water resources has not been fundamentally changed.Food security and water security are facing a serious situation.This paper takes the water footprint as the connection point,and combines the water food meat system with mutual influence,mutual causation and dynamic feedback into a composite system.At the same time,the simulation model of the composite system is established by using system dynamics,and the dynamic simulation of water grain meat in China from 2000 to 2050 is carried out to explore the current situation and future development trend of China’s water,grain and meat supply capacity.It was found that during the simulated period,the agricultural blue-green water footprint on the demand side would continue to dominate,followed by the gray water footprint.The blue water footprint on the supply side remained stable,whereas the green water footprint and the circulating water footprint showed an upward trend.According to the contemporary social and economic development and the model of water resources in China,there will be no meat shortage in the future,but issues have been found in the ability to guarantee water and food supply.The root of China’s food support capability problem is excessive grain consumption due to meat production,whereas the cause of the water support capability problem is the slow development of the water conservation.Food support capability issues can be solved by regulating the meat output of livestock farming and fishery operations,reducing excess production capacity,and stabilizing the meat supply and demand.To solve the water support capability issue,China should focus on accelerating the pace of agricultural water-conservation development,improving the sewage treatment system,building rainwater-collection projects,and promoting the research and development of water recycling technology.This study provides support for optimizing the structures of the meat and grain industries and the policy formulation of the efficient use of water resources in China.

Coordination and order risk assessment of water and land resource system based on periphery and synergetics theories

Coordinated and orderly water and land resource system is vital to ensure the economic and social development of a region.Grain production in Heilongjiang Province has increased consecutively every year since 2003,and numerous water and land resource-related problems have become increasingly prominent and have had significant adverse effects on social and economic development and stability in the region.In this study,Heilongjiang Province and its 13 prefecture-level cities were selected as the study area,and the degrees of coordination of the social,economic and ecological subsystems were evaluated using periphery theory and the theory of synergetics.To ensure that the assessment was objective and accurate,weights were calculated using the projection pursuit technique,and similarity degrees were calculated using a modified(by introducing the chi-square distance)order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)technique.Moreover,to reflect the variations in the overall degree of coordination in Heilongjiang Province,the risk level of the coordination of the water and land resource system was predicted through the year 2020 using a dynamic neural network.This study provides a reference for establishing effective and balanced coordination between society and water and land resources.