Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise t...Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise the following three questions regarding China's structural transformation:(1) Why did the share of China's agricultural and manufacturing employment reduce/increase intermittently rather than continuously?(2) Why did the share of China's agricultural employment increase during certain periods? When the share of manufacturing employment reduced, why did the workforce reversely flow into agriculture rather than move to the service sector?(3) Why did growth in the share of China's service sector employment decelerate before reaching its peak? Why did the share of employment in the industrial sector suddenly increase after an abrupt decline? This paper creates a multisector economic growth model that contains non-homothetic preferences and differentiated productivity, and incorporates the "two drivers" therein for a demand-side estimation and analysis. The result shows that China's economic growth model driven by net export and investment is a critical factor for explaining the three questions regarding its structural transformation. This paper believes that only by implementing supply-side structural reforms, reducing the dependence on net export and investment, and achieving sustainable endogenous economic growth will China be able to expedite its industrial restructuring.展开更多
Since the global financial crisis,global value chain(GVC)have been contracting amid the trend toward economic de-globalization.With GVC participation rate in mind as the core indicator of economic de-globalization,in ...Since the global financial crisis,global value chain(GVC)have been contracting amid the trend toward economic de-globalization.With GVC participation rate in mind as the core indicator of economic de-globalization,in this paper we create a multi-country general equilibrium model to characterize the mechanism by which manufacturing localization affects GVC participation rate.Our theoretical derivation shows that changes in the local manufacturing status of final products in various countries directly influence the GVC participation rate of those countries.When the local proportion of a country’s final products reaches a certain level,rising local proportion of intermediate inputs,economic growth below the world average level,and technology progress all cause the country’s GVC participation rate to decline,giving rise to de-globalization at the manufacturing and trade levels.We further provide a comprehensive interpretation based on an empirical test of the deep-seated causes of economic de-globalization in relation to such economic phenomena as increasing trade concentration,the“technology backlash”effect of the new industrial revolution,and economic growth driven by the combined forces of trade protectionism and quantitative easing.展开更多
文摘Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise the following three questions regarding China's structural transformation:(1) Why did the share of China's agricultural and manufacturing employment reduce/increase intermittently rather than continuously?(2) Why did the share of China's agricultural employment increase during certain periods? When the share of manufacturing employment reduced, why did the workforce reversely flow into agriculture rather than move to the service sector?(3) Why did growth in the share of China's service sector employment decelerate before reaching its peak? Why did the share of employment in the industrial sector suddenly increase after an abrupt decline? This paper creates a multisector economic growth model that contains non-homothetic preferences and differentiated productivity, and incorporates the "two drivers" therein for a demand-side estimation and analysis. The result shows that China's economic growth model driven by net export and investment is a critical factor for explaining the three questions regarding its structural transformation. This paper believes that only by implementing supply-side structural reforms, reducing the dependence on net export and investment, and achieving sustainable endogenous economic growth will China be able to expedite its industrial restructuring.
基金the major project under the National Social Science Fund of China (NSSFC)“Advancing New-Type Industrialization and the Optimization and Upgrade of the Economic System” for interpreting the spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee (21ZDA021)and the Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS),“Study on the High-Quality Development of Emerging Industries.”
文摘Since the global financial crisis,global value chain(GVC)have been contracting amid the trend toward economic de-globalization.With GVC participation rate in mind as the core indicator of economic de-globalization,in this paper we create a multi-country general equilibrium model to characterize the mechanism by which manufacturing localization affects GVC participation rate.Our theoretical derivation shows that changes in the local manufacturing status of final products in various countries directly influence the GVC participation rate of those countries.When the local proportion of a country’s final products reaches a certain level,rising local proportion of intermediate inputs,economic growth below the world average level,and technology progress all cause the country’s GVC participation rate to decline,giving rise to de-globalization at the manufacturing and trade levels.We further provide a comprehensive interpretation based on an empirical test of the deep-seated causes of economic de-globalization in relation to such economic phenomena as increasing trade concentration,the“technology backlash”effect of the new industrial revolution,and economic growth driven by the combined forces of trade protectionism and quantitative easing.
