Multi-step ahead soil temperature forecasting at different depths based on meteorological data:Integrating resampling algorithms and machine learning models

Direct soil temperature(ST)measurement is time-consuming and costly;thus,the use of simple and cost-effective machine learning(ML)tools is helpful.In this study,ML approaches,including KStar,instance-based K-nearest learning(IBK),and locally weighted learning(LWL),coupled with resampling algorithms of bagging(BA)and dagging(DA)(BA-IBK,BA-KStar,BA-LWL,DA-IBK,DA-KStar,and DA-LWL)were developed and tested for multi-step ahead(3,6,and 9 d ahead)ST forecasting.In addition,a linear regression(LR)model was used as a benchmark to evaluate the results.A dataset was established,with daily ST time-series at 5 and 50 cm soil depths in a farmland as models’output and meteorological data as models’input,including mean(T_(mean)),minimum(Tmin),and maximum(T_(max))air temperatures,evaporation(Eva),sunshine hours(SSH),and solar radiation(SR),which were collected at Isfahan Synoptic Station(Iran)for 13 years(1992–2005).Six different input combination scenarios were selected based on Pearson’s correlation coefficients between inputs and outputs and fed into the models.We used 70%of the data to train the models,with the remaining 30%used for model evaluation via multiple visual and quantitative metrics.Our?ndings showed that T_(mean)was the most effective input variable for ST forecasting in most of the developed models,while in some cases the combinations of variables,including T_(mean)and T_(max)and T_(mean),T_(max),Tmin,Eva,and SSH proved to be the best input combinations.Among the evaluated models,BA-KStar showed greater compatibility,while in most cases,BA-IBK and-LWL provided more accurate results,depending on soil depth.For the 5 cm soil depth,BA-KStar had superior performance(i.e.,Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)=0.90,0.87,and 0.85 for 3,6,and 9 d ahead forecasting,respectively);for the 50 cm soil depth,DA-KStar outperformed the other models(i.e.,NSE=0.88,0.89,and 0.89 for 3,6,and 9 d ahead forecasting,respectively).The results con?rmed that all hybrid models had higher prediction capabilities than the LR model.

Comparing the Soil Conservation Service model with new machine learning algorithms for predicting cumulative infiltration in semi-arid regions

Water infiltration into soil is an important process in hydrologic cycle;however,its measurement is difficult,time-consuming and costly.Empirical and physical models have been developed to predict cumulative infiltration(CI),but are often inaccurate.In this study,several novel standalone machine learning algorithms(M5Prime(M5P),decision stump(DS),and sequential minimal optimization(SMO))and hybrid algorithms based on additive regression(AR)(i.e.,AR-M5P,AR-DS,and AR-SMO)and weighted instance handler wrapper(WIHW)(i.e.,WIHW-M5P,WIHW-DS,and WIHW-SMO)were developed for CI prediction.The Soil Conservation Service(SCS)model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture(USDA),one of the most popular empirical models to predict CI,was considered as a benchmark.Overall,154 measurements of CI(explanatory/input variables)were taken from 16 sites in a semi-arid region of Iran(Illam and Lorestan provinces).Six input variable combinations were considered based on Pearson correlations between candidate model inputs(time of measuring and soil bulk density,moisture content,and sand,clay,and silt percentages)and CI.The dataset was divided into two subgroups at random:70%of the data were used for model building(training dataset)and the remaining 30%were used for model validation(testing dataset).The various models were evaluated using different graphical approaches(bar charts,scatter plots,violin plots,and Taylor diagrams)and quantitative measures(root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE),and percent bias(PBIAS)).Time of measuring had the highest correlation with CI in the study area.The best input combinations were different for different algorithms.The results showed that all hybrid algorithms enhanced the CI prediction accuracy compared to the standalone models.The AR-M5P model provided the most accurate CI predictions(RMSE=0.75 cm,MAE=0.59 cm,NSE=0.98),while the SCS model had the lowest performance(RMSE=4.77 cm,MAE=2.64 cm,NSE=0.23).The differences in RMSE between the best model(AR-M5P)and the second-best(WIHW-M5P)and worst(SCS)were 40%and 84%,respectively.