Herein,a matching method for varied epidemic phase characteristics and appropriate strategies is presented,aiming at the complexities of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the hysteresis of strategies.The...Herein,a matching method for varied epidemic phase characteristics and appropriate strategies is presented,aiming at the complexities of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the hysteresis of strategies.The classical diffusion dynamic models of the epidemic spread are compared.Furthermore,the Bass diffusion model is selected to study more characteristics of an epidemic,such as the diversities in regional internal and external infection rates.Thereafter,the classical division method vis-à-vis a pandemic life cycle is improved.A specific approach is proposed to portray more detailed characteristics of the pandemic by dividing it into more phases.Next,a four-level epidemic prevention and control measure system is concretized.The applicable phases and strategic effectiveness of each measure are integrated into the different phases of the pandemic life cycle.Finally,the matching method is applied to analyze two cases of the spread of the outbreak in cities and significant events.The findings provide a certain reference for the effectiveness of the matching method in the post-peak epidemic period.展开更多
基金National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021ZD0111200)National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72174099),High-tech Discipline Construction Fundings for Universities in Beijing(Safety Science and Engineering).
文摘Herein,a matching method for varied epidemic phase characteristics and appropriate strategies is presented,aiming at the complexities of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the hysteresis of strategies.The classical diffusion dynamic models of the epidemic spread are compared.Furthermore,the Bass diffusion model is selected to study more characteristics of an epidemic,such as the diversities in regional internal and external infection rates.Thereafter,the classical division method vis-à-vis a pandemic life cycle is improved.A specific approach is proposed to portray more detailed characteristics of the pandemic by dividing it into more phases.Next,a four-level epidemic prevention and control measure system is concretized.The applicable phases and strategic effectiveness of each measure are integrated into the different phases of the pandemic life cycle.Finally,the matching method is applied to analyze two cases of the spread of the outbreak in cities and significant events.The findings provide a certain reference for the effectiveness of the matching method in the post-peak epidemic period.
