Mexican producers were supported by the Government from 1993-2013 through the PROCAMPO (support program, direct subsidy from the federal government), in order to keep the prices stable. The tool used to analyze the ba...Mexican producers were supported by the Government from 1993-2013 through the PROCAMPO (support program, direct subsidy from the federal government), in order to keep the prices stable. The tool used to analyze the basic products price behavior was Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Data from the period 1980 to 2014 was available, and two ANN models were implemented, one including only internal prices of related products and the second takes into account also the international maize price. The purpose of this paper was to analyze the impact of internal related products and international maize price on the behavior of internal maize price. Both models demonstrated the powerful of the ANN for prediction of the maize price 3 and 5 years ahead. Also, a sensitivity analysis was performed using Garson’s algorithm, through which was demonstrated that rice, safflower and sorghum are corn’s complementary products. The rice price was the variable with a major positive impact on the national corn price. On the other hand, wheat, soybean and barley behave as corn’s substitute products, with wheat price being the variable with major impact on the corn price. Including the international corn price improves the model performance, besides there was a negative sensitivity between the international and national corn price;this behavior is explained by the fact that during PROCAMPO existence, the national prices were forced to be stable while the international maize price was increasing. Finally, this study showed the application of the ANN models in a particular product price behavior, with the possibility of being used in the decision making process for the application of subsidies to the agricultural producers in public policies.展开更多
A water distribution problem in the Mexican Valley is modeled first as a three-person noncooperative game. Each player has a five-dimensional strategy vector, the strategy sets are defined by 15 linear constraints, an...A water distribution problem in the Mexican Valley is modeled first as a three-person noncooperative game. Each player has a five-dimensional strategy vector, the strategy sets are defined by 15 linear constraints, and the three payoff functions are also linear. A nonlinear optimization problem is first formulated to obtain the Nash equilibrium based on the Kuhn-Tucker conditions, and then, duality theorem is used to develop a computational procedure. The problem can also be considered as a conflict between the three players. The non-symmetric Nash bargaining solution is suggested to find the solution. Multiobjective programming is an alternative solution concept, when the water supply of the three players are the objectives, and the water authority is considered to be the decision maker. The optimal water distribution strategies are determined by using these solution concepts and methods.展开更多
文摘Mexican producers were supported by the Government from 1993-2013 through the PROCAMPO (support program, direct subsidy from the federal government), in order to keep the prices stable. The tool used to analyze the basic products price behavior was Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Data from the period 1980 to 2014 was available, and two ANN models were implemented, one including only internal prices of related products and the second takes into account also the international maize price. The purpose of this paper was to analyze the impact of internal related products and international maize price on the behavior of internal maize price. Both models demonstrated the powerful of the ANN for prediction of the maize price 3 and 5 years ahead. Also, a sensitivity analysis was performed using Garson’s algorithm, through which was demonstrated that rice, safflower and sorghum are corn’s complementary products. The rice price was the variable with a major positive impact on the national corn price. On the other hand, wheat, soybean and barley behave as corn’s substitute products, with wheat price being the variable with major impact on the corn price. Including the international corn price improves the model performance, besides there was a negative sensitivity between the international and national corn price;this behavior is explained by the fact that during PROCAMPO existence, the national prices were forced to be stable while the international maize price was increasing. Finally, this study showed the application of the ANN models in a particular product price behavior, with the possibility of being used in the decision making process for the application of subsidies to the agricultural producers in public policies.
文摘A water distribution problem in the Mexican Valley is modeled first as a three-person noncooperative game. Each player has a five-dimensional strategy vector, the strategy sets are defined by 15 linear constraints, and the three payoff functions are also linear. A nonlinear optimization problem is first formulated to obtain the Nash equilibrium based on the Kuhn-Tucker conditions, and then, duality theorem is used to develop a computational procedure. The problem can also be considered as a conflict between the three players. The non-symmetric Nash bargaining solution is suggested to find the solution. Multiobjective programming is an alternative solution concept, when the water supply of the three players are the objectives, and the water authority is considered to be the decision maker. The optimal water distribution strategies are determined by using these solution concepts and methods.
