Response of Asiatic ibex(Capra sibirica) under Climate Change Scenarios

We investigated the effects of climate change on the distribution of the Asiatic ibex(Capra sibirica)in eastern Tajikistan.No existing climate change studies have been conducted on the habitat of a wild goat species in Asia.We conducted ecological niche modelling to compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for ibex.Projecting to 2070,18%(2689 km^2)of the current suitable areas would be lost,mostly located in the southeastern and northwestern regions of the study area.However,new suitable habitats could expand outside the current ibex range—about 30%(4595 km^2)expansion until 2070.We found that the elevation,terrain roughness,seasonal temperature,and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important factors in the models and had strong correlations to ibex distribution.The losses in the southeastern portion overlapped most of the current locations of ibex in that region.These losses were observed in the much lower elevations of the study area(3500 m to 4000 m).When considering both loss and gain,the ibex could see a net expansion to new suitable habitats.About 30%(1379 km^2)of the average habitat gains for the Asiatic ibex in 2070 showed a shift to northern lower temperature habitats.Our results are beneficial in planning for the potential effects on biodiversity conservation in the eastern mountain region of Tajikistan under climate change scenarios.Special attention should be given to the ibex populations in the southeastern region,where habitats could become unsuitable for the species as a result of the climate-induced effects on the mountain ecosystem.

comCharacteristics of browsed aspen forests following wildfire and implications for management:a case study

Aims Recognizing ungulate browsing thresholds between viable and declining aspen(Populus tremuloides Michx.)stands are critical to ensuring long-term persistence of this biologically important plant community.Studies have shown declines in vigor and regeneration when as few as 30%of current annual twigs are browsed while other studies have shown higher limits.Although the effects of ungulate herbivory are of concern in aspen forests,few studies have assessed browsing effects following wildfire and few criteria exist for deter-mining potential effects of ungulate browsing on aspen forests fol-lowing wildfire.We evaluated the effects of ungulate abundance and foraging intensity on regenerating aspen 1 to 6 years post-fire and assessed the use of abundance and foraging intensity indicators in predicting impacts to regenerating aspen.Rocky Mountain elk(Cervus elaphus nelson)was the primary ungulate in the study area.Methods The study area was located within the 17500 ha cerro Grande Fire burn area in the Jemez Mountains,New Mexico,USA.We used percent aspen twigs browsed and pellet-group counts to evaluate relationships between these indicators and aspen patch structure(height,size).We collected data in randomly generated 3×33 m plots 5-6 years post-fire.We also established 4 fenced exclosures(25×55 m and 3.3 m in height)with paired unfenced plots 1-year post-fire to monitor aspen regeneration.Each spring,we recorded percent browsed twigs from the previous fall through the early spring period which coincided with the highest ungulate use period within the study area.We assessed associations between percent twigs browsed and pellet-group density and patch size and height of aspen using Spearman’s correlation coefficients.Important Findings Mean percent twigs browsed and ungulate pellet-group density across the burn area was≤31%and 1 pellet-group 100 sq m−1,respectively.Patch size and height decreased with increasing browsing and pellet-group density 5-6 years post-fire.However,mean aspen heights were approaching or exceeding a minimum browsing level of 2 m and,therefore,ungulate browsing did not appear sufficient to cause signif-icant impacts to aspen across the burn area.We observed a positive correlation between pellet-group density and twig browsing suggest-ing that one or both measures could be used to assess potential effects of browsing on regenerating aspen following fire.