Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030

The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland.Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model,the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault,which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology,geodesy,and historical earthquake records.Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world,this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap,motion strongly locked,sparse small-moderate earthquakes,and apparent Coulomb stress increase.This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland.The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations;the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake.

High-resolution velocity structure and seismogenic potential of strong earthquakes in the Bamei-Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone

On September 5,2022,a strong MS6.8 earthquake struck the Luding area in the Kangding-Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone,which is the northern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block,causing considerable casualties.The Bamei-Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone,which is located only tens of kilometers away from the Luding earthquake,has hosted frequent moderate to strong earthquakes in history and is a dangerous earthquake-prone zone.Therefore,it is critical to investigate the regional seismogenic environment for strong earthquakes and to evaluate the impact of the Luding earthquake in this area.For this purpose,we deployed a dense seismic array comprising over 200 short-period nodes in this region from July to August,2022 and acquired seismic ambient noise for over 30 days.Using the collected data,we conducted surface wave tomography and obtained a high-resolution 3-D shear wave velocity model for the regional shallow crust down to 8 km in depth.The key findings include:(1)the Bamei-Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone exhibits widespread stripped lowvelocity anomalies,suggesting shear movements at a relatively high temperature of the Xianshuihe fault zone;the Zheduoshan granitic pluton situated between the Zheduotang and southern Selaha faults shows a distinct low-velocity anomaly,which may be attributed to the localized high-temperature anomaly resulted by a deep magmatic heat source and the recent rapid uplift of the Zheduoshan area;(2)a ten-kilometer-wide high velocity body found below 4 km in depth near the Zhonggu area in the Bamei segment coincides with the seismic gap of moderate to strong earthquakes in this region,suggesting that the high velocity body may act as a seismic barrier;(3)the heterogeneity of the velocity structure along the Bamei-Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone corresponds to the regional changes in temperature,which reveals the reason for the spatially varying seismogenic potential in this segment;especially,the Selaha and Zheduotang faults which are located along the boundaries between the high and low velocity anomalies may possess considerable seismogenic potential;(4)the Coulomb failure stress calculations indicate that the Luding earthquake has imposed nontrivial stress loading in the Bamei-Kangding segment,and may shorten the earthquake recurrence intervals of the southern Selaha fault,the Zheduotang fault,and the Xuemenkan segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone.Thus,the Luding earthquake may potentially pose threats to the Sichuan-Xizang railway passing through this region.

3-D geologic architecture of Xiong＇an New Area： Constraints from seismic reflection data

Studying the geologic architecture of the Xiong'an New Area will provide important basis for the evaluation of crustal stability, urban planning and infrastructural projects in this region, and it is also of great significance in exploring the occurrence of oil and gas, geothermal, hot dry rock and other resources. The stratigraphic system of the study area is established by using latest high quality seismic reflection and deep borehole data. Characteristics of the major faults developed in the study area are finely depicted with the method of structural analysis. Tectonic evolution of Xiong'an and adjacent areas is reconstructed by using balanced geological cross-section technique. The tectonic activity of the study area is discussed on the basis of the development of secondary faults and the distribution of active earthquakes across the region. This study demonstrates that Xiong'an New Area is located at the transfer zone of the central and northern Jizhong Depression. There are three regional unconformities developed in this area, by which four structural layers are sub-divided. Controlled by the Taihang Mountain piedmont fault, the Daxing fault, the Rongcheng fault and the Niudong fault, the structural framework of the study area is characterized by intervening highs with sags. This structural pattern has an important controlling over the reservoir characteristics, hydrocarbon accumulation and the distribution of geothermal resources and hot dry rock within this region. Rifting in this area began in the early Paleogene, exhibiting typical episodic character and became inactive in Neogene. The development feature of secondary faults along with the distribution of active earthquakes indicate that Xiong'an New Area has been in a relatively stable tectonic setting since the Neogene, while the Baxian Sag and other structural units to the east of it have obviously been in a rather active environment.