Serum SCCA-IgM as a predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with liver cirrhosis

Aberrant Squamous Cell Carcinoma Antigen (SCCA) expression is an early hepatocarcinogenetic event and circulating SCCA-IgM complexes are elevated in most HCC patients. We evaluated whether serum SCCA-IgM levels can identify HCV +ve cirrhotic patients at low HCC risk. In this retrospective study we enrolled 29 cirrhotic patients in whom serum SCCA-IgM was measured 8 - 69 months (median 31) before HCC diagnosis, and 28 cirrhotic patients who remained HCC- free, with SCCA-IgM measured 15 - 68 months (median 48) before the study end. The best discriminating value of SCCA-IgM was calculated and tested in predicting HCC diagnosis within 12, 24 and 36 months. Sensitivity analysis, considering different HCC incidence, was conducted to identify the patient subgroup with an annual cancer risk below the threshold of a cost-effective semiannual surveillance with ultrasound. Cumulative HCC incidence at 12, 24 and 36 months was 7.0%, 15.7% and 26.3%, respectively. SCCA-IgM levels were higher in HCC than in cirrhotic patients [median: 381 (95% C.I.: 50 - 5289) vs. 100 (70 - 493) AU/mL, P = 0.005]. The SCCA-IgM value ≤ 200 AU/mL accurately identified patients at low risk of HCC development in the subsequent year (sensitivity 75%, specificity 62%, positive predictive value 13% and negative predictive value 97%). Considering an annual HCC incidence ≤ 3%, patients with SCCA-IgM ≤ 200 AU/mL (60% of the whole patients) had an HCC risk below the accepted threshold of a cost-effective surveillance (1.5%). In conclusion, provided that our provocative results are confirmed in larger studies, SCCA-IgM serum measurement could permit implementation of a two step (with different costs) surveillance: an initial serological surveillance, based on the annual monitoring of this biomarker, and the conventional surveillance by semiannual US when SCCA-IgM becomes >200 AU/mL. This could improve the cost/effectiveness of surveillance of HCV infected patients at risk of HCC.

Hepatitis C virus recurrence after liver transplantation:A 10-year evaluation

AIM: To evaluate the predictors of 10-year survival of patients with hepatitis C recurrence. METHODS: Data from 358 patients transplanted between 1989 and 2010 in two Italian transplant centers and with evidence of hepatitis C recurrence were analyzed. A χ2, Fisher's exact test and Kruskal Wallis' test were used for categorical and continuous variables, respectively. Survival analysis was performed at 10 years after transplant using the Kaplan-Meier method, and a log-rank test was used to compare groups. A P level less than 0.05 was considered significant for all tests. Multivariate analysis of the predictive role of different variables on 10-year survival was performed by a stepwise Cox logistic regression.RESULTS: The ten-year survival of the entire population was 61.2%. Five groups of patients were identified according to the virological response or lack of a response to antiviral treatment and, among those who were not treated, according to the clinical status(mild hepatitis C recurrence, "too sick to be treated" and patients with comorbidities contraindicating the treatment). While the 10-year survival of treated and untreated patients was not different(59.1% vs 64.7%, P = 0.192), patients with a sustained virological response had a higher 10-year survival rate than both the "non-responders"(84.7% vs 39.8%, P < 0.0001) and too sick to be treated(84.7% vs 0%, P < 0.0001). Sustained virological responders had a survival rate comparable to patients untreated with mild recurrence(84.7% vs 89.3%). A sustained virological response and young donor age were independent predictors of 10-year survival. CONCLUSION: Sustained virological response significantly increased long-term survival. Awaiting the interferon-free regimen global availability, antiviral treatment might be questionable in selected subjects with mild hepatitis C recurrence.