Modelling of Corporate Exposure at Default(EAD)in Emerging Financial Markets:The Case for Counters Listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange(ZSE)in the Dollarization Era

This study explores the Exposure at Default(EAD)emanating from credit events undertaken by listed banking corporations trading on emerging markets,such as Zimbabwe’s Stock Exchange(ZSE)or market in the dollarization era,namely period 2010-2012.The dollarization of the Zimbabwean economy in 2009 coincided with the recovery of the global financial economy from the worst worldwide economic recession ever experienced in this world.The study used audited and published data drawn from financial statements of two banking corporations for the period 2010 to 2012 that were accessible on ZSE website.These data were presented and analyzed using Eviews7.The study revealed that there were a lot of non-performing loans drawn from EADs of banking corporations trading on the ZSE in the period under review.The study further noted that credit exposures issued by commercial banks in the period 2010-2012 were also exposed to risk from the nature of the borrowers,banks’internal and external market variables.The variables that impacted on banks’credit exposures include political,social,industrial,unemployment,technological challenges,state of financial markets,their capitalization and liquidity statuses.We therefore conclude that banks in emerging markets need to efficiently and effectively manage their credit portfolios in their desire to grow towards sustainable development.The study also concludes that banks in emerging markets that are into lending activities should adopt and implement financial econometric(EAD)models that are easy to apply,practical,pragmatic,and adjusted for market friction.The study recommends that listed banking corporations in emerging markets need to adhere to the requirements of the Basel Ⅱ and Ⅲ Capital Accords if they are to make meaningful business out of their credit exposure operations.It also recommends that banks should come up with capitalization and investment strategies that suit their economic conditions if they are to grow and develop sizeable market shares and wealth from their lending businesses.Finally the study recommends that banks in emerging economies should adapt to international business standards,strategies,ethics,and corporate governance parameters if they are to grow towards greater similarity with those in developed nations in their service delivery to the stakeholders and contribution to nation building and sustainable development.

Corporate Probability of Default(PD)Modelling for Banks in Emerging Economies:A Case Study of Zimbabwe Stock Exchange(ZSE)Listed Counters

The paper extends Merton’s Probability of Default(PD)model to the case for transaction costs or market friction for estimation of the PDs of listed banking corporations.A closed form formula for the PD model is obtained and validated using financial data drawn from banks listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange(ZSE).It has been observed that most corporations in emerging economies have been finding it extremely difficult to list,continue listed or manage risk emanating from credit exposures undertaken.In the absence of risk the role of the financial sector of an economy to efficiently and effectively allocate resources between the public and private sectors would be simplified,economically and rationally determined.Reliable or precise computation of the Probability of Default(PD)of a borrower is one of the most critical tasks in credit risk management for commercial banks that were applying the Internal Rating Based Approach(IRBA)under the Basel Capital Accords Ⅱ and Ⅲ frameworks.The study sought to develop a Probability of Default(PD)model that banking corporations in emerging economies such as Zimbabwe could adopt and implement in the Multiple Currency System(MCS)in their desire to grow and develop through their lending businesses.The research study adopted a PD model similar to the Asset Valuation Model(AVM)by Merton(1974)and initially extended by Black-Scholes(1973)and Crouhy et al.(2000)and applied it on a basket of Zimbabwe Stock Exchange listed counters after having adjusted the model for the transaction cost variable.The study therefore succeeded in coming up with a PD model that was worth adopting and implementing by Zimbabwe Stock Exchange(ZSE)listed corporations in their desire to grow towards sustainable development.It was realised that a contemporary PD model adjusted for transaction cost is pertinent for reflection of practical conditions banks face in estimation of their risk metrics such as PD.Transaction costs faced by banks in emerging economies are very huge that they cannot be assumed to be insignificant when it comes to valuation of PDs of banking corporations.The inclusion of transaction costs in estimation of PDs of ZSE listed banks is likely to create a paradigm shift in financial theory on risk metrics in the modern world.The study ends by recommending the need for all Zimbabwean listed corporations to adopt and implement an AVM adjusted for transaction costs if they were to successfully measure and manage both their investment and credit exposure endeavours in the multiple currency system period.