Recent Progress in Numerical Atmospheric Modeling in China

This review summarizes the scientific and technical progress in atmospheric modeling in China since 2011,including the dynamical core,model physics,data assimilation,ensemble forecasting,and model evaluation strategies.In terms of the dynamical core,important efforts have been made in the improvement of the existing model formulations and in exploring new modeling approaches that can better adapt to massively parallel computers and global multiscale modeling.With regard to model physics,various achievements in physical representations have been made,especially a trend toward scale-aware parameterization for accommodating the increase of model resolution.In the field of data assimilation,a 4D-Var system has been developed and is operationally used by the National Meteorological Center of China,and its performance is promising.Furthermore,ensemble forecasting has played a more important role in operational forecast systems and progressed in many fundamental techniques.Model evaluation strategies,including key performance metrics and standardized experimental protocols,have been proposed and widely applied to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of the systems,offering key routes for model improvement.The paper concludes with a concise summary of the status quo and a brief outlook in terms of future development.

The Extraordinary Rainfall over the Eastern Periphery of the Tibetan Plateau in August 2020

A large amount of accumulated precipitation was recorded over the Eastern Periphery of the Tibetan Plateau(EPTP)in August 2020.Using hourly rain gauge records and the ERA5 reanalysis dataset,we analyzed the unique characteristics of rainfall in August and the accompanying circulation conditions and conducted a comparison with previous data.This record-breaking amount of accumulated rainfall was centered on the northern slope of the EPTP.This location was in contrast with the historical records of the concentration of rainfall over the middle and southern slopes.The hourly rainfall in August 2020 was both more frequent and more intense than the climatological mean rainfall.An amplification effect of the topography was observed,with the precipitation over the EPTP showing a more significant change with terrain height in August 2020.A circulation analysis showed that cold(warm)anomalies existed over the north(south)of approximately 35°N compared with those in the years when the southern EPTP received more rain.The western Pacific subtropical high was more intense and extended to the west,and the low-level cold air from the north was more active.The enhanced low-level southerly winds on the periphery of the subtropical high injected warm,moist air further north than the climatological mean.These winds became easterly near the northern EPTP and were forced to ascend by the steep terrain.

Implementation of a Conservative Two-step Shape-Preserving Advection Scheme on a Spherical Icosahedral Hexagonal Geodesic Grid

An Eulerian flux-form advection scheme, called the Two-step Shape-Preserving Advection Scheme （TSPAS）, was generalized and implemented on a spherical icosahedral hexagonal grid （also referred to as a geodesic grid） to solve the transport equation. The C grid discretization was used for the spatial discretization. To implement TSPAS on an unstructured grid, the original finite-difference scheme was further generalized. The two-step integration utilizes a combination of two separate schemes （a low-order monotone scheme and a high-order scheme that typically cannot ensure monotonicity） to calculate the fluxes at the cell walls （one scheme corresponds to one cell wall）. The choice between these two schemes for each edge depends on a pre-updated scalar value using slightly increased fluxes. After the determination of an appropriate scheme, the final integration at a target cell is achieved by summing the fluxes that are computed by the different schemes. The conservative and shape-preserving properties of the generalized scheme are demonstrated. Numerical experiments are conducted at several horizontal resolutions. TSPAS is compared with the Flux Corrected Transport （FCT） approach to demonstrate the differences between the two methods, and several transport tests are performed to examine the accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the two schemes.

Exploring changes of precipitation extremes under climate change through global variable-resolution modeling

Understanding the responses of precipitation extremes to global climate change remains limited owing to their poor representations in models and complicated interactions with multi-scale systems.Here we take the record-breaking precipitation over China in 2021 as an example,and study its changes under three different climate scenarios through a developed pseudo-global-warming(PGW)experimental framework with 60-3 km variable-resolution global ensemble modeling.Compared to the present climate,the precipitation extreme under a warmer(cooler)climate increased(decreased)in intensity,coverage,and total amount at a range of 24.3%-37.8%(18.7%-56.1%).With the help of the proposed PGW experimental framework,we further reveal the impacts of the multi-scale system interactions in climate change on the precipitation extreme.Under the warmer climate,large-scale water vapor transport converged from double typhoons and the subtropical high marched into central China,enhancing the convective energy and instability on the leading edge of the transport belt.As a result,the mesoscale convective system(Mcs)that directly contributed to the precipitation extreme became stronger than that in the present climate.On the contrary,the cooler climate displayed opposite changing characteristics relative to the warmer climate,ranging from the large-scale systems to local environments and to the Mcs.In summary,our study provides a promising approach to scientifically assess the response of precipitation extremes to climate change,making it feasible to perform ensemble simulations while investigating the multi-scale system interactions over the globe.

Diurnal Variations of Summer Precipitation over the Qilian Mountains in Northwest China

Based on the high-density hourly rain-gauge data from 265 stations over the Qilian Mountains in Northwest China,climatic mean diurnal variations of summer rainfall over different topographies of this area are investigated. Influences of the gauge elevations on the diurnal variation of rainfall are also revealed. Distinct regional features of diurnal variations in rainfall are observed over the Qilian Mountains. Rainfall over the Qinghai Lake areas shows a single nocturnal peak. A dominant, late-afternoon peak of rainfall occurs over the mountain tops. Over the northeastern and southeastern slopes, a dominant diurnal peak appears in the late afternoon, and an evident second peak is found in the early morning, respectively. The strengths of the early-morning peaks in the rainfall frequency are closely related to the rainfall events with different durations over the two slopes. The early-morning peak is dominant across plains with low elevations. From the mountain tops to the plains, the diurnal peaks of rainfall gradually vary from the dominant late-afternoon peak to the dominant early-morning peak with the enhanced early-morning peak in concurrent with the decreasing gauge elevation over the northeastern and southeastern slopes. Further examination indicates that the rainfall at higher elevations over the northeastern and southeastern slopes occurs more readily in the afternoon,compared to the lower elevations. This phenomenon corresponds to the result that the proportion of the rainfall frequency occurring during the early-morning period decreases with increasing elevations over the two slopes.

Performance of CAMS-CSM in Simulating the Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effect over Global Stratus Cloud Regions: Baseline Evaluation and Sensitivity Test

The ability of climate models to correctly reproduce clouds and the radiative effects of clouds is vitally important in climate simulations and projections.In this study,simulations of the shortwave cloud radiative effect(SWCRE)using the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Climate System Model(CAMS-CSM)are evaluated.The relationships between SWCRE and dynamic–thermodynamic regimes are examined to understand whether the model can simulate realistic processes that are responsible for the generation and maintenance of stratus clouds.Over eastern China,CAMS-CSM well simulates the SWCRE climatological state and stratus cloud distribution.The model captures the strong dependence of SWCRE on the dynamic conditions.Over the marine boundary layer regions,the simulated SWCRE magnitude is weaker than that in the observations due to the lack of low-level stratus clouds in the model.The model fails to simulate the close relationship between SWCRE and local stability over these regions.A sensitivity numerical experiment using a specifically designed parameterization scheme for the stratocumulus cloud cover confirms this assertion.Parameterization schemes that directly depict the relationship between the stratus cloud amount and stability are beneficial for improving the model performance.