Multiple studies have identified links between climate and West Nile virus disease since the virus arrived in North America. Here we sought to extend these results by developing a Health Impact Function (HIF) to gener...Multiple studies have identified links between climate and West Nile virus disease since the virus arrived in North America. Here we sought to extend these results by developing a Health Impact Function (HIF) to generate county-level estimates of the expected annual number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases based on the county’s historical WNND incidence, annual average temperature, and population size. To better understand the potential impact of projected temperature change on WNND risk, we used the HIF to project the change in expected annual number of WNND cases attributable to changing temperatures by 2050 and by 2090 using data from five global climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). To estimate the costs of anticipated changes, as well as to enable comparisons with other public health impacts, projected WNND cases were allocated to nonfatal and fatal outcomes, then monetized using a cost-of-illness estimate and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s value of a statistical life, respectively. We found that projected future temperature and population changes could increase the expected annual number of WNND cases to ≈2000 - 2200 cases by 2050 and to ≈2700 - 4300 cases by 2090, from a baseline of 970 cases. Holding population constant at future levels while varying temperature from a 1995 baseline, we estimated projected temperature change alone is responsible for ≈590 and ≈960 incremental WNND cases in 2050 and 2090 (respectively) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and ≈820 and ≈2500 cases in 2050 and 2090 (respectively) for the RCP8.5 scenario, with substantial regional variation. The monetized impact of these temperature-attributable incremental cases is estimated at $0.5 billion in 2050 and $1.0 billion in 2090 under the RCP4.5 scenario, and $0.7 billion in 2050 and $2.6 billion in 2090 under the RCP8.5 scenario (undiscounted 2015 U.S. dollars).展开更多
Worldwide deaths of children younger than 5 years reduced from 12.7 million in 1990 to 6.3 million in 2013.Much of this decline is attributed to an increase in the knowledge,skills,and abilities of child health profes...Worldwide deaths of children younger than 5 years reduced from 12.7 million in 1990 to 6.3 million in 2013.Much of this decline is attributed to an increase in the knowledge,skills,and abilities of child health professionals.In turn this increase in knowledge,skills,and abilities has been brought about by increased child-health-focused education available to child health professionals.Therefore child-health-focused education must be part of the strategy to eliminate the remaining 6.3 million deaths and to achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goals.This article describes a child-health-focused program that was established in 1992 and operates in 20 countries:Australia,Bangladesh,Botswana,Cambodia,China,Ethiopia,Hong Kong,India,Kenya,Malawi,Mongolia,Myanmar,Sierra Leone,the Seychelles,the Solomon Islands,Tanzania,Tonga,Vanuatu,Vietnam,and Zimbabwe.The Diploma in Child Health/International Postgraduate Paediatric Certificate(DCH/IPPC)course provides a comprehensive overview of evidence-based current best practice in pediatrics.This includes all subspecialty areas from infectious diseases and emergency medicine through to endocrinology,respiratory medicine,neurology,nutrition,and dietetics.Content is developed and presented by international medical experts in response to global child health needs.Content is provided to students via a combination of learning outcomes,webcasts,lecture notes,personalized study,tutorials,case studies,and clinical practice.One hundred eleven webcasts are provided,and these are updated annually.This article includes a brief discussion of the value and focus of medical education programs;a description of the DCH/IPPC course content,approaches to teaching and learning,course structure and the funding model;the most recent evaluation of the DCH/IPPC course;and recommendations for overcoming the challenges for implementing a multinational child-health-focused program.展开更多
文摘Multiple studies have identified links between climate and West Nile virus disease since the virus arrived in North America. Here we sought to extend these results by developing a Health Impact Function (HIF) to generate county-level estimates of the expected annual number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases based on the county’s historical WNND incidence, annual average temperature, and population size. To better understand the potential impact of projected temperature change on WNND risk, we used the HIF to project the change in expected annual number of WNND cases attributable to changing temperatures by 2050 and by 2090 using data from five global climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). To estimate the costs of anticipated changes, as well as to enable comparisons with other public health impacts, projected WNND cases were allocated to nonfatal and fatal outcomes, then monetized using a cost-of-illness estimate and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s value of a statistical life, respectively. We found that projected future temperature and population changes could increase the expected annual number of WNND cases to ≈2000 - 2200 cases by 2050 and to ≈2700 - 4300 cases by 2090, from a baseline of 970 cases. Holding population constant at future levels while varying temperature from a 1995 baseline, we estimated projected temperature change alone is responsible for ≈590 and ≈960 incremental WNND cases in 2050 and 2090 (respectively) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and ≈820 and ≈2500 cases in 2050 and 2090 (respectively) for the RCP8.5 scenario, with substantial regional variation. The monetized impact of these temperature-attributable incremental cases is estimated at $0.5 billion in 2050 and $1.0 billion in 2090 under the RCP4.5 scenario, and $0.7 billion in 2050 and $2.6 billion in 2090 under the RCP8.5 scenario (undiscounted 2015 U.S. dollars).
文摘Worldwide deaths of children younger than 5 years reduced from 12.7 million in 1990 to 6.3 million in 2013.Much of this decline is attributed to an increase in the knowledge,skills,and abilities of child health professionals.In turn this increase in knowledge,skills,and abilities has been brought about by increased child-health-focused education available to child health professionals.Therefore child-health-focused education must be part of the strategy to eliminate the remaining 6.3 million deaths and to achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goals.This article describes a child-health-focused program that was established in 1992 and operates in 20 countries:Australia,Bangladesh,Botswana,Cambodia,China,Ethiopia,Hong Kong,India,Kenya,Malawi,Mongolia,Myanmar,Sierra Leone,the Seychelles,the Solomon Islands,Tanzania,Tonga,Vanuatu,Vietnam,and Zimbabwe.The Diploma in Child Health/International Postgraduate Paediatric Certificate(DCH/IPPC)course provides a comprehensive overview of evidence-based current best practice in pediatrics.This includes all subspecialty areas from infectious diseases and emergency medicine through to endocrinology,respiratory medicine,neurology,nutrition,and dietetics.Content is developed and presented by international medical experts in response to global child health needs.Content is provided to students via a combination of learning outcomes,webcasts,lecture notes,personalized study,tutorials,case studies,and clinical practice.One hundred eleven webcasts are provided,and these are updated annually.This article includes a brief discussion of the value and focus of medical education programs;a description of the DCH/IPPC course content,approaches to teaching and learning,course structure and the funding model;the most recent evaluation of the DCH/IPPC course;and recommendations for overcoming the challenges for implementing a multinational child-health-focused program.
