This paper posits that a proper way to estimate the Renminbi(RMB) exchange rate is to base the evaluation on the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and that the optimal way to facilitate China's growth model transformation...This paper posits that a proper way to estimate the Renminbi(RMB) exchange rate is to base the evaluation on the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and that the optimal way to facilitate China's growth model transformation is gradual RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization. Regression estimates show that the gross domestic product per capita growth rate, or the productivity growth rate, has strong explanatory validity when estimating the RMB exchange rate. The findings further assert that, as the growth of gross fixed capital formation slows, and the growth of household consumption speeds up, China's economic growth will be sustained. The RMB exchange rate regime is one in which gradual reforms must yield to interest rates levels and hence should only be revalued conditionally.展开更多
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universitiesthe Research Funds of Renmin University of China(No.10XNJ060)
文摘This paper posits that a proper way to estimate the Renminbi(RMB) exchange rate is to base the evaluation on the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and that the optimal way to facilitate China's growth model transformation is gradual RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization. Regression estimates show that the gross domestic product per capita growth rate, or the productivity growth rate, has strong explanatory validity when estimating the RMB exchange rate. The findings further assert that, as the growth of gross fixed capital formation slows, and the growth of household consumption speeds up, China's economic growth will be sustained. The RMB exchange rate regime is one in which gradual reforms must yield to interest rates levels and hence should only be revalued conditionally.
