Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage,droughts and floods in northeast China.A study has been conducted to quantify the influence o...Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage,droughts and floods in northeast China.A study has been conducted to quantify the influence of climate change on the hydrologic process in the Tao’er River Basin(TRB),one of the most prominent regions in northeast China for water contradiction.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model was calibrated and validated with observed land use and hydro-climatic data and then employed for runoff simulations at upper,middle and lower reaches of the river basin for different climate change scenarios.The results showed that a gradual increase in temperature and decrease in annual precipitation in the basin was projected for the period 2020-2050 for both representative concentration pathways(RCP)4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.The climate changes would cause a decrease in annual average runoff at basin outlet by 12 and 23 million m^(3) for RCP4.5 and 8.5,respectively.The future runoff in the upstream and midstream of the basin during 2020-2050 would be-10.8% and-12.1% lower than the observed runoff compared to the base period for RCP4.5,while those would be-5.3% and-10.7%lower for RCP8.5.The future runoff will decrease at three hydrology stations for the assumed future climate scenarios.The results can help us understand the future temperature and precipitation trends and the hydrological cycle process under different climate change scenarios,and provide the basis for the rational allocation and management of water resources under the influence of future climate change in the TRB.展开更多
基金the Key R&D Projects of Jilin Provincial Science and Technology Department(20200403070SF)Young Top-Notch Talent Support Program of National High-level Talents Special Support Plan+2 种基金National Key R&D Program of China(NO.2017YFC0403506)China Water Resource Conservation and Protection Project(No.126302001000150005)Strategic Consulting Projects of Chinese Academy of Engineering(NO.2016-ZD-08-05-02)。
文摘Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage,droughts and floods in northeast China.A study has been conducted to quantify the influence of climate change on the hydrologic process in the Tao’er River Basin(TRB),one of the most prominent regions in northeast China for water contradiction.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model was calibrated and validated with observed land use and hydro-climatic data and then employed for runoff simulations at upper,middle and lower reaches of the river basin for different climate change scenarios.The results showed that a gradual increase in temperature and decrease in annual precipitation in the basin was projected for the period 2020-2050 for both representative concentration pathways(RCP)4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.The climate changes would cause a decrease in annual average runoff at basin outlet by 12 and 23 million m^(3) for RCP4.5 and 8.5,respectively.The future runoff in the upstream and midstream of the basin during 2020-2050 would be-10.8% and-12.1% lower than the observed runoff compared to the base period for RCP4.5,while those would be-5.3% and-10.7%lower for RCP8.5.The future runoff will decrease at three hydrology stations for the assumed future climate scenarios.The results can help us understand the future temperature and precipitation trends and the hydrological cycle process under different climate change scenarios,and provide the basis for the rational allocation and management of water resources under the influence of future climate change in the TRB.
