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单双参云微物理方案对华北“7·20”特大暴雨数值模拟对比分析 被引量:13
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作者 康延臻 靳双龙 +3 位作者 彭新东 杨旭 尚可政 王式功 《高原气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2018年第2期481-494,共14页
在2016年7月19 21日华北特大暴雨过程初步分析的基础上,采用中尺度数值模式WRF3.6.1中16种微物理参数化方案对该过程进行了数值模拟,并分为单参和双参两组对结果进行评估分析。结果表明,该过程为伴随低涡发展的强对流降水,持续时间长、... 在2016年7月19 21日华北特大暴雨过程初步分析的基础上,采用中尺度数值模式WRF3.6.1中16种微物理参数化方案对该过程进行了数值模拟,并分为单参和双参两组对结果进行评估分析。结果表明,该过程为伴随低涡发展的强对流降水,持续时间长、范围广、总量大。大部分微物理方案对降水的分布模拟效果较好,能够再现此次特大暴雨过程;随模拟时间延长,方案间的差别变大,且单参方案对各量级降水的模拟差别比双参方案显著,方案间雨水混合比、固态水凝物以及垂直速度的差别均大于双参方案,整体效果不如双参方案。综合来看,SBU_YLin方案对于此次特大暴雨过程模拟效果最好,对降水量级和落区的模拟都接近实况。 展开更多
关键词 云微物理过程 单、双参数 特大暴雨 对比分析
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西安呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与气象因素的关系 被引量:4
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作者 张楠 尚可政 +2 位作者 刘敏茹 刘继峰 魏俊涛 《甘肃科学学报》 2020年第3期61-65,83,共6页
利用西安市2010—2014年呼吸系统疾病死亡人数和同期气象数据,通过spss17.0对气象因子与呼吸系统疾病逐日死亡人数进行相关分析,通过多元逐步回归方法建立气象因素对呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的预测模型,并应用同期气象数据和呼吸系统疾病... 利用西安市2010—2014年呼吸系统疾病死亡人数和同期气象数据,通过spss17.0对气象因子与呼吸系统疾病逐日死亡人数进行相关分析,通过多元逐步回归方法建立气象因素对呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的预测模型,并应用同期气象数据和呼吸系统疾病死亡人数检验预测模型。结果显示:西安地区呼吸系统疾病死亡人数冬春季明显多于夏秋季,且四季与呼吸系统疾病死亡人数有显著相关的气象因子不同;建立了春季、冬季的呼吸系统疾病死亡人数预报模型,经检验实测与预测人数平均相差分别为1.42人、0.56人,模型预测效果较好,可为预防呼吸系统疾病发生、发展,提高人群自我保健意识提供指导。 展开更多
关键词 气象因素 呼吸系统疾病 死亡人数 预测模型
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西安浐灞生态区降雨及气象环境因素对负氧离子浓度的影响分析 被引量:3
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作者 张楠 尚可政 +2 位作者 徐军昶 尚子溦 魏俊涛 《甘肃科学学报》 2020年第4期43-49,共7页
利用西安浐灞生态区空气负氧离子监测数据,分析西安夏季负氧离子浓度变化特征,研究降雨对负氧离子浓度变化的影响以及气象环境因素对负氧离子浓度的预报预测。研究显示:西安夏季浐灞生态区负氧离子月均值8月最高,无雨日负氧离子最大值... 利用西安浐灞生态区空气负氧离子监测数据,分析西安夏季负氧离子浓度变化特征,研究降雨对负氧离子浓度变化的影响以及气象环境因素对负氧离子浓度的预报预测。研究显示:西安夏季浐灞生态区负氧离子月均值8月最高,无雨日负氧离子最大值常出现在深夜至凌晨时段;雨日负氧离子小时浓度与前0~3 h各时次的降雨呈直线相关关系(p<0.05);中雨以上的降雨与负氧离子浓度的线性关系较小雨更显著,表明降雨能激增空气负氧离子浓度;空气负氧离子浓度与PM2.5、PM10、CO、日降水量、日均风速有显著相关性(p<0.01)。通过逐步回归分析法,建立夏季负氧离子浓度的多元逐步回归预报模型(p<0.01),拟合曲线与实际观测曲线基本一致。 展开更多
关键词 负氧离子 气象环境 影响分析 预报模型
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Characteristics of air pollution events over Hotan Prefecture at the southwestern edge of Taklimakan Desert, China 被引量:5
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作者 LI Jingxin WANG Shigong +4 位作者 CHU Jinhua WANG Jiaxin LI Xu YUE Man shang kezheng 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第5期686-700,共15页
Hotan Prefecture is located at the southwestern edge of Taklimakan Desert, the world's largest shifting sand desert, of China. The desert is one of the main sources for frequent sand-dust weather events which strongl... Hotan Prefecture is located at the southwestern edge of Taklimakan Desert, the world's largest shifting sand desert, of China. The desert is one of the main sources for frequent sand-dust weather events which strongly affect the air quality of Hotan Prefecture. Although this region is characterized by the highest annual mean PMlo concentration values that are routinely recorded by environmental monitoring stations across China, both this phenomenon and its underlying causes have not been adequately addressed in previous researches. Reliable pollutant PM_10 data are currently retrieved using a tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) 1400a, a direct real-time monitor, while additional concentration values including for PM_2.5, sulfur dioxide (SO_2), nitrogen dioxide (NO_2), carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O_3) have been collected in recent years by the Hotan Environmental Monitoring Station. Based on these data, this paper presents a comparison of the influences of different kinds of sand-dust weather events on PM_10 (or PM_2.5) as well as the concentrations of other gaseous pollutants in Hotan Prefecture. It is revealed that the highest monthly average PM_10 concentrations are observed in the spring because of the frequent occurrence of three distinct kinds of sand-dust weather events at this time, including dust storms, blowing dust and floating dust. The floating dust makes the most significant contribution to PM_10 (or PM_2.5) concentration in this region, a result that differs from eastern Chinese cities where the heaviest PM_10 pollution occurs usually in winter and air pollution results from the excess emission of local anthropogenic pollutants. It is also shown that PM_10 concentration varies within wpical dust storms. PM_10 concentrations vary among 20 dust storm events within Hotan Prefecture, and the hourly mean concentrations tend to sharply increase initially then slowly decreasing over time. Data collected from cities in eastern China show the opposite with the hourly mean PM_10 (or PM_2.5) concentration tending to slowly increase then sharply decrease during heavy air pollution due to the excess emission of local anthropogenic pollutants. It is also found that the concentration of gaseous pollutants during sand-dust weather events tends to be lower than those cases under clear sky conditions. This indicates that these dust events effectively remove and rapidly diffuse gaseous pollutants. The analysis also shows that the concentration of SO_2 decreases gradually at the onset of all three kinds of sand-dust weather events because of rapidly increasing wind velocity and the development of favorable atmospheric conditions for diffusion. In contrast, changes in O_3 and NO_2 concentrations conformed to the opposite pattern during all three kinds of sand-dust weather events within this region, implying the inter transformation of these gas species during these events. 展开更多
关键词 PM10 (or PM2.5) concentration sand-dust weather events gaseous pollutants air pollution Taklimakan Desert
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A new method for instant correction of numerical weather prediction products in China
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作者 ZHANG LanHui WANG ShiGong +4 位作者 HE ChanSheng shang kezheng MENG Lei LI Xu Brent M.LOFGREN 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第2期231-244,共14页
This paper presents a new correction method, "instant correction method(ICM)", to improve the accuracy of numerical prediction products(NPP) and provide weather variables at grid cells. The ICM makes use of ... This paper presents a new correction method, "instant correction method(ICM)", to improve the accuracy of numerical prediction products(NPP) and provide weather variables at grid cells. The ICM makes use of the continuity in time of the forecast errors at different forecast times to improve the accuracy of large scale NPP. To apply the ICM in China, an ensemble correction scheme is designed to correct the T213 NPP(the most popular NPP in China) through different statistical methods. The corrected T213 NPP(ICM T213 NPP) are evaluated by four popular indices: Correlation coefficient, climate anomalies correlation coefficient, root-mean-square-errors(RMSE), and confidence intervals(CI). The results show that the ICM T213 NPP are more accurate than the original T213 NPP in both the training period(2003–2008) and the validation period(2009–2010). Applications in China over the past three years indicate that the ICM is simple, fast, and reliable. Because of its low computing cost, end users in need of more accurate short-range weather forecasts around China can benefit greatly from the method. 展开更多
关键词 天气预报产品 数值预报产品 中国 即时 T213 预测时间 校正方案 相关系数
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