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基于MaxEnt模型的绞股蓝潜在适生区预测 被引量:3
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作者 邵周玲 周文佐 +2 位作者 杨帆 李凤 周新尧 《南方农业学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2021年第4期1124-1131,共8页
【目的】研究药食同源植物绞股蓝在全国范围的潜在分布情况,旨在为绞股蓝的引种及种植推广工作提供依据。【方法】结合绞股蓝地理分布数据和生物气候变量,利用ArcGIS 10.3及MaxEnt模型预测该物种当前在全国的潜在分布区,基于Jackknife... 【目的】研究药食同源植物绞股蓝在全国范围的潜在分布情况,旨在为绞股蓝的引种及种植推广工作提供依据。【方法】结合绞股蓝地理分布数据和生物气候变量,利用ArcGIS 10.3及MaxEnt模型预测该物种当前在全国的潜在分布区,基于Jackknife检验法和Pearson相关分析,筛选影响绞股蓝生长的关键环境因子,并探讨在未来气候下即中低排放(PCR4.5)和高排放(PCR8.5)气候情景下的分布格局。【结果】预测结果与实际拟合度较高。Jackknife检验结果显示年降水量、最干月降水量和最冷月最低温度是影响绞股蓝分布的主要气候因子,累积贡献率达92.9%;最适宜绞股蓝生长的年降水量在960~2220 mm,最干月降水量>10 mm,最冷月气温在-5~8℃。当前绞股蓝主要分布于我国南方,适宜区面积为218.3万km^(2),极适宜区和高适宜区在大巴山—武陵山山区和长江中下游平原形成两大核心区。在未来气候下,至2050年绞股蓝适生区总面积变化较小但不同等级适生区面积变化明显,适生区北至点自山东半岛向高纬地区延伸至辽宁半岛。在RCP4.5气候情景下,极、高适宜区面积分别从当前25.1万和46.1万km^(2)增加至42.9万和61.3万km^(2),中、低适宜区面积分别减少4.2万和12.0万km^(2);在RCP8.5气候情景下,极、高适宜区面积将分别增加至60.3万和65.9万km^(2),中、低适宜区面积进一步减少;两种气候情景下适宜区的重心向东北移动,其中极适宜区东移明显,在RCP4.5气候情景下东移115.4 km,在RCP8.5气候情景下进一步东移195.1 km。【建议】基于地理信息技术加强中药农业的区划研究,建立最佳种植适宜区;建立政企研合作发展机制,科学有效地推动种植规模化和产业现代化。 展开更多
关键词 MaxEnt模型 适宜性 气候变化 绞股蓝
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Effects of ecological projects on vegetation in the Three Gorges Area of Chongqing, China 被引量:1
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作者 LI Feng ZHOU Wen-zuo +1 位作者 shao zhou-ling ZHOU Xin-yao 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第1期121-135,共15页
The construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir and the resettlement project have caused increasing contradictions between human and land,and led to the deterioration of the ecological environment. In order to ameliora... The construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir and the resettlement project have caused increasing contradictions between human and land,and led to the deterioration of the ecological environment. In order to ameliorate ecological environment of the Three Gorges Area, the government carried out several ecological restoration projects to improve the vegetation coverage from 1990 s. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the impact of ecological projects on the vegetation in the Three Gorges Area of Chongqing, China. Landsat and MODIS data from 1992 to 2015 were used to estimate vegetation coverage. In addition, the land cover data of the European Space Agency(ESA) was used to explore the impact of ecological projects on land cover change. The cropland accounted for about 62% and the forestland accounted for about 34% of the total area. There was more than 90% of the study area covered with high or very high vegetation coverage.From 1992 to 2015, a total of 272.7 km;croplands were converted into forestland in the Ecological Migration Project(EMP), 795.6 km;in the Grain for Green Project(GGP), and 13.77 km;in the Ecological Restoration Zone Project(ERZP). Among the three projects, the GGP was the most powerful measure,with a contribution rate of 1.6%. The implementation of the ecological projects improved vegetation coverage, which indicated that the ecological projects measures were effective in ecological restoration. 展开更多
关键词 Land cover change Fractional vegetation coverage Vegetation restoration Ecological projects MODIS Three Gorges Area
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