Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. Global warming and effects of anthropogenic aerosols have both been proposed a...Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. Global warming and effects of anthropogenic aerosols have both been proposed as possible causes of these changes. We examine data from urban and rural meteorological stations in eastern China （1955-2011） and compare them with Global Precipitation Climatology Project （GPCP） data （1979-2007） and reanalysis data in various latitude zones to study changes in precipitation extremes. Significant decreases in light precipitation and increases in heavy precipitation are found at both rural and urban stations, as well as low latitudes over the ocean, while total precipitation shows little change. Characteristics of these changes and changes in the equatorial zone and other latitudes suggest that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes. In eastern China, increases of annual total dry days （28 days） and ） 10 consecutive dry days （36%） are due to the decrease in light precipitation days, thereby establishing a causal link among global warming, changes in precipitation extremes, and higher meteorological risk of floods and droughts. Further, results derived from the GPCP data and reanalysis data suggest that the causal link exists over widespread regions of the globe.展开更多
In his comments, Wang cites a number of works to dispute the conclusion in our previous work, which attributes the observed decreases/increases in light/heavy precipitation in eastern China primarily to global warming...In his comments, Wang cites a number of works to dispute the conclusion in our previous work, which attributes the observed decreases/increases in light/heavy precipitation in eastern China primarily to global warming rather than the regional aerosol effect. However, most of the cited works （admittedly, including our previous work）, employ correlation analysis, which has little bearing on the cause--effect relationship. Theoretical analyses and/or modeling studies are needed to ascertain the cause-effect relationship. We argue that theoretical analyses and modeling results show that global warming is the primary cause of the widely observed phenomena of suppression of light precipitation and enhancement of heavy precipitation across the globe, including in eastern China.展开更多
基金supported in part by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDB05010500)the Clean Air Research Project in China (Grant No. 201509001)+3 种基金the Sustainable Development Research Project of Academia Sinica, Consortium for Climate Change Studyfunded by the National Science Council (Grant No. 100-2119-M-001-029-MY5)sponsored by the Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Qualitythe State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, Peking University
文摘Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. Global warming and effects of anthropogenic aerosols have both been proposed as possible causes of these changes. We examine data from urban and rural meteorological stations in eastern China （1955-2011） and compare them with Global Precipitation Climatology Project （GPCP） data （1979-2007） and reanalysis data in various latitude zones to study changes in precipitation extremes. Significant decreases in light precipitation and increases in heavy precipitation are found at both rural and urban stations, as well as low latitudes over the ocean, while total precipitation shows little change. Characteristics of these changes and changes in the equatorial zone and other latitudes suggest that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes. In eastern China, increases of annual total dry days （28 days） and ） 10 consecutive dry days （36%） are due to the decrease in light precipitation days, thereby establishing a causal link among global warming, changes in precipitation extremes, and higher meteorological risk of floods and droughts. Further, results derived from the GPCP data and reanalysis data suggest that the causal link exists over widespread regions of the globe.
文摘In his comments, Wang cites a number of works to dispute the conclusion in our previous work, which attributes the observed decreases/increases in light/heavy precipitation in eastern China primarily to global warming rather than the regional aerosol effect. However, most of the cited works （admittedly, including our previous work）, employ correlation analysis, which has little bearing on the cause--effect relationship. Theoretical analyses and/or modeling studies are needed to ascertain the cause-effect relationship. We argue that theoretical analyses and modeling results show that global warming is the primary cause of the widely observed phenomena of suppression of light precipitation and enhancement of heavy precipitation across the globe, including in eastern China.
