Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to ana...Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.展开更多
This paper summarizes the fuel type systems currently adopted by the fire danger rating systems or fire behavior prediction systems of some countries, such as Canada, the United States, Australia, Greece, and Switzerl...This paper summarizes the fuel type systems currently adopted by the fire danger rating systems or fire behavior prediction systems of some countries, such as Canada, the United States, Australia, Greece, and Switzerland. As an example, the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System organizes fuel types into five major groups, with a total of 16 discrete fuel types recognized. In the United States National Fire Danger Rating System, fuel models are divided into four vegetation groups and twenty fire behavior fuel models. The Promethus System （Greece） divides fuels into 7 types, and Australia has adopted only three distinct fuel types： open grasslands, dry eucalyptus forests, and heath/shrublands. Four approaches to mapping fuels are acceptable： field reconnaissance, direct mapping methods, indirect mapping methods, and gradient modeling. Satellite remote-sensing techniques provide an alternative source of obtaining fuel data quickly, since they provide comprehensive spatial coverage and enough temporal resolution to update fuel maps in a more efficient and timely manner than traditional aerial photography or fieldwork. Satellite sensors can also provide digital information that can be easily tied into other spatial databases using Geographic Information System （GIS） analysis, which can be used as input in fire behavior and growth models. Various fuel-mapping methods from satellite remote sensing are discussed in the paper. According to the analysis of the fuel mapping techniques worldwide, this paper suggests that China should first create appropriate fuel types for its fire agencies before embarking on developing a national fire danger rating system to improve the current data situation for it＇s fire management programs.展开更多
基金supported by Nature Science Foundation of China(31570645,31870643)China National Key R&D Program during the 13th Five-year Plan Period(2017YFD0600106)+1 种基金Jiangsu province “six talent peaks” high-level personnel training projecta part of a Excellent Scientific and Technological Innovation Team of Nanjing Forest Police College
基金support by National Science and Technology Support Plan(2007BAC03A02)National Natural Science Foundation of China(30671695)
文摘Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.
基金This paper was supported by the Beijing Fund of Nature Science (No. 6042025), China NKBRSF Project (No. 2001CB409600) and Laboratory of Forest Protection, State Forestry Administration
文摘This paper summarizes the fuel type systems currently adopted by the fire danger rating systems or fire behavior prediction systems of some countries, such as Canada, the United States, Australia, Greece, and Switzerland. As an example, the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System organizes fuel types into five major groups, with a total of 16 discrete fuel types recognized. In the United States National Fire Danger Rating System, fuel models are divided into four vegetation groups and twenty fire behavior fuel models. The Promethus System （Greece） divides fuels into 7 types, and Australia has adopted only three distinct fuel types： open grasslands, dry eucalyptus forests, and heath/shrublands. Four approaches to mapping fuels are acceptable： field reconnaissance, direct mapping methods, indirect mapping methods, and gradient modeling. Satellite remote-sensing techniques provide an alternative source of obtaining fuel data quickly, since they provide comprehensive spatial coverage and enough temporal resolution to update fuel maps in a more efficient and timely manner than traditional aerial photography or fieldwork. Satellite sensors can also provide digital information that can be easily tied into other spatial databases using Geographic Information System （GIS） analysis, which can be used as input in fire behavior and growth models. Various fuel-mapping methods from satellite remote sensing are discussed in the paper. According to the analysis of the fuel mapping techniques worldwide, this paper suggests that China should first create appropriate fuel types for its fire agencies before embarking on developing a national fire danger rating system to improve the current data situation for it＇s fire management programs.
