Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.

Comparison of the reaction of polar mesosphere winter echoes and polar mesosphere summer echoes to high-frequency heating in terms of modulated characteristics

In this work,for the first time,we have analyzed and compared the responses of polar mesosphere winter echoes(PMWE)and their summer counterpart,polar mesosphere summer echoes(PMSE),to high-frequency(HF)heating in terms of modulated characteristics(i.e.,backscatter intensity reduction,recovery,and overshoot).Both PMWE and PMSE observations were from the same site(Tromsφ,Norway;69.6°N,19.2°E)and radar(EISCAT[European Incoherent Scatter Scientific Association]very high frequency,224 MHz).The heating patterns of both PMWE and PMSE were found to be similar;however,PMSE was more greatly affected by HF heating.Polar mesosphere summer echoes showed recovery and overshoot more frequently than did PMWE.In addition,the mean recovery and overshoot of PMSE were greater than those of PMWE.The associated electron temperature enhancement was estimated for both PMWE and PMSE and showed that,compared with PMWE,the electron temperature enhancement was more significant in PMSE.The strong heating effects on PMSE may be due to the considerable increase in electron temperature.

SRResNet Performance Enhancement Using Patch Inputs and Partial Convolution-Based Padding

Due to highly underdetermined nature of Single Image Super-Resolution(SISR)problem,deep learning neural networks are required to be more deeper to solve the problem effectively.One of deep neural networks successful in the Super-Resolution(SR)problem is ResNet which can render the capability of deeper networks with the help of skip connections.However,zero padding(ZP)scheme in the network restricts benefits of skip connections in SRResNet and its performance as the ratio of the number of pure input data to that of zero padded data increases.In this paper.we consider the ResNet with Partial Convolution based Padding(PCP)instead of ZP to solve SR problem.Since training of deep neural networks using patch images is advantageous in many aspects such as the number of training image data and network complexities,patch image based SR performance is compared with single full image based one.The experimental results show that patch based SRResNet SR results are better than single full image based ones and the performance of deep SRResNet with PCP is better than the one with ZP.

PMSE dependence on frequency observed simultaneously with VHF and UHF radars in the presence of precipitation

Using PMSE （polar mesosphere summer echoes） observations in combination with particle flux measurements obtained with detectors onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite （GOES） a special condition is shown for the occurrence of rare observed UHF PMSE. When electron flux observed from GOES satellites show a decrease, then after being in the presence of precipitation UHF PMSE occurs. The heating effect on PMSE is small when the UHF electron density is enhanced at 90 km due to particle precipitation. We analyzed and compared the frequency dependence of PMSE under the condition of high energy particle precipitation in July of 2004 and 2007 at well separated frequencies （224 and 930 MHz） at the same site, height, and time. The frequency index varies with height and time. At different heights, the maximum as well as the minimum value of volume reflectivity at VHF is greater than that at UHF with 2 to 3 orders of magnitude. A new qualitative method for the analysis of dust distribution is used by analyzing the relationship between volume reflectivity and frequency index. In agreement with the results of the model it is shown that dust particles of smaller size generally did not occur at the edges, instead they occurred in the middle PMSE regions.

On the radar frequency dependence of polar mesosphere summer echoes

Polar mesosphere summer echoes(PMSEs)are very strong radar echoes in the polar mesopause in local summer.Here we present the frequency dependence of the volume reflectivity and the effect of energetic particle precipitation on modulated PMSEs by using PMSEs observations carried out by European Incoherent SCATter(EISCAT)heating equipment simultaneously with very high frequency(VHF)radar and ultra high frequency(UHF)radar on 12 July 2007.According to the experimental observations,the PMSEs occurrence rate at VHF was much higher than that at UHF,and the altitude of the PMSEs maximum observed at VHF was higher than that at UHF.Overlapping regions were observed by VHF radar between high energetic particle precipitation and the PMSEs.In addition,highfrequency heating had a very limited impact on PMSEs when the UHF electron density was enhanced because of energetic particle precipitation.In addition,an updated qualitative method was used to study the relationship between volume reflectivity and frequency.The volume reflectivity was found to be inversely proportional to the fourth power of radar frequency.The theoretical and experimental results provide a definitive data foundation for further analysis and investigation of the physical mechanism of PMSEs.

Investigation of PMSE echoes characteristics using the discontinuous EISCAT UHF observation and its relation with space environment

The observations of Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE) were carried out using the sporadic data of EISCAT UHF radar during the summer season from 2004 to 2015. There were 25 h of PMSE echoes with EISCAT UHF radar. PMSE echoes were mostly observed only during the early morning and fore-noon time. Moreover, the PMSE echoes are positively correlated with Lymanα radiation, but the correlation is non-significant. The occurrence of PMSE echoes in the early morning and fore-noon time and there positive correlation with Lymanαradiation suggests that solar radiations might be one important factor for PMSE echoes in this study. Very weak positive, but statistically non-significant correlation is found between PMSE occurrence rate and the local geomagneticK-indices. It is found that there is a matching between the variation in the occurrence rate of PMSE and noctilucent clouds (NLC) up to some extent and they are positively correlated. This positive correlation might support the earlier proposed idea about the role of ice particle size in producing PMSE echoes at higher frequencies.

Numerical Analysis of Artificial Electron Heating Effects on Polar Mesospheric Winter Echoes

In this paper,an analytical model is used to analyze the modulated polar mesospheric winter echoes(PMWE).The winter parameters were introduced to simulate the effects of different parameters during the artificial electron heating of PMWE.The important role of the charged dust particle in the creation of PMWE is confirmed again.It is found that during the heating of PMWE,the increases of the dust size,dust charge,electron temperature,initial electron density,and ion-neutral collision frequency cause the increase of the electron density irregularity,and hence the PMWE strength.However,with increasing the dust density,the electron density irregularity and the PMWE strength decrease.

Exploring the occurrence rate of PMSE-Es by Digisonde at Tromsø

Polar mesosphere summer echoes(PMSE)are observed simultaneously with Digisonde and EISCAT VHF radar.The phenomenon of irregular Es layers is called PMSE-like or PMSE-Es(Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes-Es)and has some relationship with real PMSE.In this paper,the characteristics of irregular Es layers at 80–100 km were observed by Digisonde at Tromsøduring 2003–2014 are statistically analyzed with ionograms.The diurnal,day-to-day and year-to-year variations and discrepancies of occurrence rate between PMSE and PMSE-Es are compared with the statistical results observed by Esrange MST radar(ESRAD),and the reasons are discussed.The results show that the trends in the occurrence rate of PMSE-Es are similar to the trends in the occurrence rate of PMSE,but there are some notable differences.The occurrence rate of PMSE-Es is much lower than the occurrence rate of PMSE.The minimum value of PMSE-Es appears 1–2 hours earlier than the minimum value of the PMSE occurrence rate,while PMSE-Es appear earlier than PMSE in the year.In addition,there is a significant positive correlation between the annual average occurrence rates of PMSE and PMSE-Es.PMSEEs is a relatively important occurrence in the polar mesopause.Analysis of its characteristics can provide new ideas and methods for studying the formation mechanism of PMSE.

Effect of ions on conductivity and permittivity in the Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes region

For the first time,the effect of ions on complex conductivity and permittivity of dusty plasma at Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes(PMSE)altitude is analyzed.Because of ions higher mass and smaller thermal velocity,generally,their effects are not considered in the study of electromagnetic properties of dusty plasmas.In this study,we modified the equations of conductivity and permittivity by adding the effect of ions.In the PMSE altitude region between 80 and 90 km,a local reduction in electron density(i.e.,an electron biteout),is produced by electron absorption onto dust particles.The bite-out condition contains high dust density and smaller electron density.From simulation results in comparatively strong bite-out conditions,we found that the ion effects on conductivity become significant with smaller dust size,lower electron temperature,and lower neutral density.For comparatively weak bite-out conditions,the ion effects on conductivity become significant with larger dust size,higher electron temperature,and higher neutral density.On the other hand,for different dust sizes,electron temperatures and neutral density,the ion effects on complex permittivity become significant only in very strong bite-out conditions.Based on these simulation results,we conclude that,in the absence of electron bite-out conditions,the effect of ions on complex conductivity and permittivity is not significant and can be ignored.However,during bite-out conditions,the effect of ions becomes significant and cannot be ignored because it significantly changes the conductivity and permittivity of dusty plasmas.

Characteristic analysis of layered PMSEs measured with different elevation angles at VHF based on an experimental case

Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes(PMSEs)are very strong radar echoes observed at altitudes near the polar summer mesopause.One of the essential properties of these radar echoes is that they can give useful diagnostic information about the physics of the scattering process.In this paper,the related characteristics of PMSEs measured with the European Incoherent SCATter Very High Frequency(EISCAT VHF)224 MHz radar on 13–15 July 2010 are studied at different elevation angles from 78°to 90°.It is found that the PMSEs peak power and strongest PMSEs average power occur at the same elevation angles.Also interesting is that the strongest PMSEs occur at off-vertical angles when a PMSEs has a layered(multilayer)structure.And reflection may have more significant effects on PMSEs when there are double or multilayer PMSEs.Possible explanations regarding these observations are discussed.