The U.S.National Institute of Standards and Technology(NIST)published the Community Resilience Planning Guide in 2016.The NIST Guide advocates for a participatory process for developing a performance measurement frame...The U.S.National Institute of Standards and Technology(NIST)published the Community Resilience Planning Guide in 2016.The NIST Guide advocates for a participatory process for developing a performance measurement framework for the jurisdiction’s resilience against a scenario hazard.The framework centers around tables of expected and desired recovery times for selected community assets,such as electricity,water,and natural gas infrastructures.The NIST Guide does not provide a method for estimating the expected recovery times.However,building high-fidelity computer models for such estimations requires substantial resources that even larger ju-risdictions cannot cost-justify.The most promising approach to recovery time estimation is to systematically use data elicited from people to tap into the wisdom of the(knowledgeable)crowd.This paper describes a novel research-through-design project to enable the computer-supported elicitation of recovery time series data.This work is the first in the literature to examine people’s ability to estimate recovery curves and how design in-fluences such estimations.Its main contribution to resilience planning is three-fold:development of a new elicitation tool called Restimate,understanding its potential user base,and providing insights into how it can facilitate resilience planning.Restimate is the first tool to enable evidence-based expert elicitation in any community with limited resources for resilience planning.Beyond resilience planning,those who facilitate high-stakes planning activities under large uncertainties(e.g.,mission-critical system design and planning)will benefit from a similar research-through-design process.展开更多
基金support of the U.S.National Science Foundation(NSF grants CMMI-1824681,BCS-2121616,&CMMI-2211077)。
文摘The U.S.National Institute of Standards and Technology(NIST)published the Community Resilience Planning Guide in 2016.The NIST Guide advocates for a participatory process for developing a performance measurement framework for the jurisdiction’s resilience against a scenario hazard.The framework centers around tables of expected and desired recovery times for selected community assets,such as electricity,water,and natural gas infrastructures.The NIST Guide does not provide a method for estimating the expected recovery times.However,building high-fidelity computer models for such estimations requires substantial resources that even larger ju-risdictions cannot cost-justify.The most promising approach to recovery time estimation is to systematically use data elicited from people to tap into the wisdom of the(knowledgeable)crowd.This paper describes a novel research-through-design project to enable the computer-supported elicitation of recovery time series data.This work is the first in the literature to examine people’s ability to estimate recovery curves and how design in-fluences such estimations.Its main contribution to resilience planning is three-fold:development of a new elicitation tool called Restimate,understanding its potential user base,and providing insights into how it can facilitate resilience planning.Restimate is the first tool to enable evidence-based expert elicitation in any community with limited resources for resilience planning.Beyond resilience planning,those who facilitate high-stakes planning activities under large uncertainties(e.g.,mission-critical system design and planning)will benefit from a similar research-through-design process.
