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Probabilistic Project Duration Estimation Based on Uncertainty of Linkage between Activities
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作者 seon-gyoo kim Junyoung kim 《Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture》 2020年第4期214-225,共12页
Generally,one of the most difficult works at scheduling is to estimate the duration of activities and linkages between them because the possibility that the duration and linkages could be exposed to the uncertainties ... Generally,one of the most difficult works at scheduling is to estimate the duration of activities and linkages between them because the possibility that the duration and linkages could be exposed to the uncertainties is very high.When estimating project duration,therefore,the probabilistic estimation of the duration as well as the probabilistic estimation of the linkages between activities should be considered concurrently.The Project Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT)that is considered to be one of the most popular techniques applied for the probabilistic estimation of a project duration cannot consider the uncertainties of the linkages because it only estimates the probabilistic duration limited to“FS0”relationship.The purpose of this study is to propose the new method,the Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique(PLET),for probabilistically estimating the project duration based on the probabilistic estimation of the BDM’s relationships,and also provide more wide and various probabilistic information about the project duration. 展开更多
关键词 PDM BDM LINKAGE OVERLAP PROBABILISTIC evaluation
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Practical Application of Two-Way Multiple Overlapping Relationships in a BDM Network
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作者 seon-gyoo kim 《Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture》 2016年第12期1318-1328,共11页
Today, most construction projects in urban environments are complex high-rise buildings that present unique challenges, including local building ordinances and restrictions, adjoining public and residential areas, nar... Today, most construction projects in urban environments are complex high-rise buildings that present unique challenges, including local building ordinances and restrictions, adjoining public and residential areas, narrow sidewalks and streets, and underground utilities, all of which require extensive planning and tight schedules. A major problem facing such projects is to formulate realistic schedules that will make it possible to meet contractual completion dates with limited resources and budgets. The scheduling software products currently used in construction projects, which include Primavera P6, Microsoft Project, etc., are not actually applied as a scheduling tool in practical construction projects, which instead generally depend on Microsoft Excel or a bar-chart. This is because the existing scheduling programs cannot provide more user-oriented schedule format such as representing two-way multiple overlapping relationships. To overcome this deficiency, the BDM (beeline diagramming method) is proposed as a new networking technique in 2010. But two-way multiple overlapping relationships generate the loop in a conventional schedule computation process. This paper addresses the loop phenomenon of two-way multiple overlapping relationships in a BDM network as well as proposes the solutions of them, and then presents a practical application of two-way multiple overlapping relationships at a real project. 展开更多
关键词 Critical path method beeline diagramming method schedule computation two-way multiple overlapping relationships consecutive activities.
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