In 1997～2003,27 earthquakes with M≥5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitude...In 1997～2003,27 earthquakes with M≥5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitudes in the years 1997, 1998 and 2003. In different time segments, the seismic activity showed strengthening-quiet changes in various degrees before earthquakes with M≥5.0. In order to delimitate effectively the precursory meaning of the clustering (strengthening) quiet change in sequence and to seek the time criterion for impending prediction, the nonlinear characteristics of seismic activity have been used to analyze the time structure characteristics of the earthquake swarm sequence, and further to forecast the development tendency of earthquake sequences in the future. Using the sequence catalogue recorded by the Kashi Station, and taking the earthquakes with M_S≥5.0 in the sequence as the starting point and the next earthquake with M_S=5.0 as the end, statistical analysis has been performed on the time structure relations of the earthquake sequence in different stages. The main results are as follows: (1) Before the major earthquakes with M≥5.0 in the swarm sequence, the time variation coefficient (δ-value) has abnormal demonstrations to different degrees. (2) Within 10 days after δ≈1, occurrence of earthquakes with M≥5.0 in the swarm is very possible. (3) The time variation coefficient has three types of change. (4) The change process before earthquakes with M5.0 is similar to that before earthquakes with M6.0, with little difference in the threshold value. In the earthquake swarm sequence, it is difficult to delimitate accurately the attribute of the current sequences (foreshock or aftershock sequence) and to judge the magnitude of the follow-up earthquake by δ-value. We can only make the judgment that earthquakes with M5.0 are likely to occur in the sequence. (5) The critical clustering characteristics of the sequence are hierarchical. Only corresponding to a certain magnitude can the sequence have the variation state of critical clustering. (6) The coefficient of the time variation has a clear meaning in physics. After the clustering-quiet state of earthquake activity has appeared, it can describe clearly the randomness of the seismogenic system. Furthermore, it can efficiently clarify whether or not the clustering quiescence variation is of some prognostic meaning. In the case that the earthquake frequency attenuation is essentially normal (h>1) and there is no remarkable clustering-quiescence state, it is still possible to discover the abnormal change of the sequence from the time variation coefficient. On the contrary, in the later period of swarm activity, after the appearance of many seismic quiescence phenomena, this coefficient did not appear abnormally, even when h<1, suggesting that the δ-value diagnosis is more universal.展开更多
In this paper,we firstly analyze the "3,400 travel time table "used for a long time in Xinjiang Seismological Network to obtain the velocity structure models in accord with the table by fitting. Then we fit ...In this paper,we firstly analyze the "3,400 travel time table "used for a long time in Xinjiang Seismological Network to obtain the velocity structure models in accord with the table by fitting. Then we fit the velocity of all seismic phases recorded in Xinjiang region in January 2009 ~ December 2013. Simulation analysis is done on the reliability and stability of the velocities,and a concept is proposed for building subarea crustal velocity models according to partitioning of seismic cluster regions. The crustal velocity model suitable for the Yutian area is fitted with the data of all phases of seismic events within a radius of 1°around the 2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake since January 2009,and the model is applied to the relocation of the Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake and determination of focal depths of the earthquake sequence.展开更多
基金a sub-project entitled"Strong Earthquake Trend Assessment of the Jiashi-Bachu and the Tianshan,Xinjiang Areas (Grant No.200333116-06)"under the project of "The MS6.8 Jiashi-Bachu, Xinjiang Earthquakesthe Strong Earthquake Trendin the Future" of the key science and technology research program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
文摘In 1997～2003,27 earthquakes with M≥5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitudes in the years 1997, 1998 and 2003. In different time segments, the seismic activity showed strengthening-quiet changes in various degrees before earthquakes with M≥5.0. In order to delimitate effectively the precursory meaning of the clustering (strengthening) quiet change in sequence and to seek the time criterion for impending prediction, the nonlinear characteristics of seismic activity have been used to analyze the time structure characteristics of the earthquake swarm sequence, and further to forecast the development tendency of earthquake sequences in the future. Using the sequence catalogue recorded by the Kashi Station, and taking the earthquakes with M_S≥5.0 in the sequence as the starting point and the next earthquake with M_S=5.0 as the end, statistical analysis has been performed on the time structure relations of the earthquake sequence in different stages. The main results are as follows: (1) Before the major earthquakes with M≥5.0 in the swarm sequence, the time variation coefficient (δ-value) has abnormal demonstrations to different degrees. (2) Within 10 days after δ≈1, occurrence of earthquakes with M≥5.0 in the swarm is very possible. (3) The time variation coefficient has three types of change. (4) The change process before earthquakes with M5.0 is similar to that before earthquakes with M6.0, with little difference in the threshold value. In the earthquake swarm sequence, it is difficult to delimitate accurately the attribute of the current sequences (foreshock or aftershock sequence) and to judge the magnitude of the follow-up earthquake by δ-value. We can only make the judgment that earthquakes with M5.0 are likely to occur in the sequence. (5) The critical clustering characteristics of the sequence are hierarchical. Only corresponding to a certain magnitude can the sequence have the variation state of critical clustering. (6) The coefficient of the time variation has a clear meaning in physics. After the clustering-quiet state of earthquake activity has appeared, it can describe clearly the randomness of the seismogenic system. Furthermore, it can efficiently clarify whether or not the clustering quiescence variation is of some prognostic meaning. In the case that the earthquake frequency attenuation is essentially normal (h>1) and there is no remarkable clustering-quiescence state, it is still possible to discover the abnormal change of the sequence from the time variation coefficient. On the contrary, in the later period of swarm activity, after the appearance of many seismic quiescence phenomena, this coefficient did not appear abnormally, even when h<1, suggesting that the δ-value diagnosis is more universal.
基金sponsored by the Special Fund of Department of Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction,CEA(1309010)Earthquake Science Foundation of Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(201207)+1 种基金the Special Training Project for Key Young Personnel of Seismic Monitoring Network of China(20130201)the Spark Program of Earthquake Science and Technology of China in 2014(XH13007)
文摘In this paper,we firstly analyze the "3,400 travel time table "used for a long time in Xinjiang Seismological Network to obtain the velocity structure models in accord with the table by fitting. Then we fit the velocity of all seismic phases recorded in Xinjiang region in January 2009 ~ December 2013. Simulation analysis is done on the reliability and stability of the velocities,and a concept is proposed for building subarea crustal velocity models according to partitioning of seismic cluster regions. The crustal velocity model suitable for the Yutian area is fitted with the data of all phases of seismic events within a radius of 1°around the 2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake since January 2009,and the model is applied to the relocation of the Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake and determination of focal depths of the earthquake sequence.
