Development of a new Cox model for predicting long-term survival in hepatitis cirrhosis patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)placement is a procedure that can effectively treat complications of portal hypertension,such as variceal bleeding and refractory ascites.However,there have been no specific studies on predicting long-term survival after TIPS placement.AIM To establish a model to predict long-term survival in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis after TIPS.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 224 patients who un-derwent TIPS implantation.Through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses,various factors were examined for their ability to predict survival at 6 years after TIPS.Consequently,a composite score was formulated,encompassing the indication,shunt reasonability,portal venous pressure gradient(PPG)after TIPS,percentage decrease in portal venous pressure(PVP),indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min(ICGR15)and total bilirubin(Tbil)level.Furthermore,the performance of the newly developed Cox(NDC)model was evaluated in an in-ternal validation cohort and compared with that of a series of existing models.RESULTS The indication(variceal bleeding or ascites),shunt reasonability(reasonable or unreasonable),ICGR15,post-operative PPG,percentage of PVP decrease and Tbil were found to be independent factors affecting long-term survival after TIPS placement.The NDC model incorporated these parameters and successfully identified patients at high risk,exhibiting a notably elevated mortality rate following the TIPS procedure,as observed in both the training and validation cohorts.Additionally,in terms of predicting the long-term survival rate,the performance of the NDC model was significantly better than that of the other four models[Child-Pugh,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),MELD-sodium and the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival].CONCLUSION The NDC model can accurately predict long-term survival after the TIPS procedure in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis,help identify high-risk patients and guide follow-up management after TIPS implantation.

Cystatin C is a biomarker for predicting acute kidney injury in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

AIM:To investigate serum cystatin C level as an early biomarker for predicting acute kidney injury(AKI)in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF).METHODS:Fifty-six consecutive patients with hepatitis B virus-related ACLF who had normal serum creatinine(Cr)level(<1.2 mg/dL in men,or<1.1 mg/dL in women)were enrolled in the Liver Failure Treatment and Research Center of Beijing 302 Hospital between August 2011 and October 2012.Thirty patients with chronic hepatitis B(CHB)and 30 healthy controls in the same study period were also included.Measurement of serum cystatin C(CysC)was performed by a particle-enhanced immunonephelometry assay using the BN Prospec nephelometer system.The ACLF patients were followed during their hospitalization period.RESULTS:In the ACLF group,serum level of CysC was 1.1±0.4 mg/L,which was significantly higher(P<0.01)than those in the healthy controls(0.6±0.3mg/L)and CHB patients(0.7±0.2 mg/L).During the hospitalization period,eight ACLF patients developed AKI.Logistic regression analysis indicated that CysC level was an independent risk factor for AKI development(odds ratio=1.8;95%CI:1.4-2.3,P=0.021).The cutoff value of serum CysC for prediction of AKI in ACLF patients was 1.21 mg/L.The baseline CysC-based estimated glomerular filtration rate(eGFR CysC)was significantly lower than the creatinine-based eGFR(eGFR CG and eGFR MDRD)in ACLF patients with AKI,suggesting that baseline eGFR CysC represented early renal function in ACLF patients while the Cr levels were still within the normal ranges.CONCLUSION:Serum CysC provides early prediction of renal dysfunction in ACLF patients with a normal serum Cr level.

Clinical characteristics and corticosteroid therapy in patients with autoimmune-hepatitis-induced liver failure

AIM:To investigate the clinical features,response to corticosteroids,and prognosis of autoimmune hepatitis(AIH)-induced liver failure in China.METHODS:A total of 22 patients(19 female and 3male;average age 51±15 years)with AIH-induced liver failure treated in our hospital from 2004 to 2012were retrospectively analyzed.Clinical,biochemical and pathological characteristics of the 22 patients and responses to corticosteroid treatment in seven patients were examined retrospectively.The patients were divided into survivor and non-survivor groups,and the clinical characteristics and prognosis were compared between the two groups.The t test was used for data analysis of all categorical variables,and overall survival was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method.RESULTS:At the time of diagnosis,mean IgG was2473±983 mg/dL,with three(18.8%)patients showing normal levels.All of the patients had elevated serum levels of antinuclear antibody(≥1:640).Liver histology from one patient showed diagnostic pathological changes,including massive necrosis and plasma cell infiltration.Four patients survived(18.2%)and 18died(81.8%)without liver transplantation.The results showed that patients with low admission Model for End-Stage Liver Disease(MELD)scores(21.50±2.08vs 30.61±6.70,P<0.05)and corticosteroid therapy(100%vs 16.7%,P<0.05)had better prognosis.A total of seven patients received corticosteroid therapy,of whom,four responded and survived,and the other three died.Survivors showed young age,shorter duration from diagnosis to corticosteroid therapy,low MELD score,and absence of hepatic encephalopathy at the time of corticosteroid administration.Six patients who were administered corticosteroids acquired fungal infections but recovered after antifungal therapy.CONCLUSION:Early diagnosis and corticosteroid therapy are essential for improving the prognosis of patients with AIH-induced liver failure without liver transplantation.

Prednisolone therapy accelerates recovery of severe drug-induced liver injury: A prospective, randomized controlled study

Background and aims:Drug-induced liver injury(DILI)is one of the most serious adverse drug reactions and its incidence has been increasing rapidly.Accumulating evidence suggests that immune activation and systemic inflammatory responses are very important in the progression of DILI.Corticosteroids are often used in DILI,but their clinical usefulness remains controversial.We therefore conducted a prospective,randomized controlled study to investigate whether corticosteroid therapy can accelerate recovery and reduce mortality in severe DILI(SDILI).Methods:SDILI patients with total bilirubin?171μmol/L who presented to the Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital,Beijing from 2016 to 2019 were randomly allocated to prednisolone and control groups.The endpoints were resolution of SDILI,defined as a decrease in total bilirubin of at least 35μmol/L to<171μmol/L,and overall survival at 6 months.Patients in the prednisolone group received prednisolone 60 mg/day therapy for the first 7 days.Patients with a decrease in total bilirubin of more than 35μmol/L on day 8 continued on tapering doses of prednisolone;otherwise,prednisolone was discontinued.Results:On day 8,50.75%(34/67)and 26.47%(18/68)of the participants in the prednisolone and control groups,respectively,achieved the primary endpoint(p¼0.002).However,there was no significant difference in overall survival at 6 months:95.52%(64/67)vs.91.18%(62/68)in the prednisolone and control groups,respectively(p¼0.3).All deaths in both groups occurred in patients who failed to achieve SDILI resolution on day 8.Conclusion:Prednisolone therapy may accelerate the recovery of SDILI.

Clinical Course and Outcome Patterns of Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure:A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

Background and Aims:Acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF)is acute decompensation of liver function in the setting of chronic liver disease,and characterized by high short-term mortality.In this study,we sought to investigate the clinical course of patients at specific time points,and to propose dynamic prognostic criteria.Methods:We assessed the clinical course of 453 patients with ACLF during a 12-week follow-up period in this retrospective multicenter study.The clinical course of patients was defined as disease recovery,improvement,worsening or steady patterns based on the variation tendency in prothrombin activity(PTA)and total bilirubin(TB)at different time points.Results:Resolution of PTA was observed in 231 patients(51%)at 12 weeks after the diagnosis of ACLF.Among the remaining patients,66(14.6%)showed improvement and 156(34.4%)showed a steady or worsening course.In patients with resolved PTA,the clinical course of TB exhibited resolved pattern in 95.2%,improved in 3.9%,and steady or worse in 0.8%.Correspondingly,in patients with improved PTA,these values for TB were 28.8%,27.3%,and 43.9%,respectively.In patients with steady or worsening PTA,these values for TB were 5.7%,32.3%,and 65.6%,respectively.Dynamic prognostic criteria were developed by combining the clinical course of PTA/TB and the clinical outcomes at 4 and 12 weeks after diagnosis in ACLF patients.Conclusions:We propose the following dynamic prognostic criteria:rapid progression,slow progression,rapid recovery,slow recovery,and slow persistence,which lay the foundation for precise prediction of prognosis and the improvement of ACLF therapy.