The accumulation of tectonic stress may cause earthquakes at some epochs. However, in most cases, it leads to crustal deformations. Underground water level is a sensitive indication of the crustal deformations. We inc...The accumulation of tectonic stress may cause earthquakes at some epochs. However, in most cases, it leads to crustal deformations. Underground water level is a sensitive indication of the crustal deformations. We incorporate the information of the underground water level into the stress release models （SRM）, and obtain the underground water stress release model （USRM）. We apply USRM to the earthquakes occurred at Tangshan region. The analysis shows that the underground water stress release model outperforms both Poisson model and stress release model. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the simulated seismicity by USRM is very close to the real seismicity.展开更多
基金financial supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the grant No.10871026
文摘The accumulation of tectonic stress may cause earthquakes at some epochs. However, in most cases, it leads to crustal deformations. Underground water level is a sensitive indication of the crustal deformations. We incorporate the information of the underground water level into the stress release models （SRM）, and obtain the underground water stress release model （USRM）. We apply USRM to the earthquakes occurred at Tangshan region. The analysis shows that the underground water stress release model outperforms both Poisson model and stress release model. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the simulated seismicity by USRM is very close to the real seismicity.
