Development and validation of a risk prediction model for repeated indwelling urinary catheterization in patients with cervical cancer after surgery

Objective:To study the factors influencing secondary indwelling catheterisation after cervical cancer surgery and to develop a predictive risk model.Methods:A total of 260 patients in a tertiary hospital in Chongqing were selected from January 2020 to December 2021 via convenience sampling.Relevant information of patients was recorded,including age;body mass index;history of hypertension and diabetes,bladder dysfunction,postoperative urinary retention,and postoperative urinary tract infection;Histology;staging;surgical approach;Operation time;Time of first remove of catheter;indwelling catheter days;Hospitalization days.Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used to reduce dimensionality and select patient characteristics,and multivariate analysis was performed based on the selected variables.Based on the outcome of analysis,a line chart model was developed for predicting the risk of secondary catheterization in patients with indwelling catheterization after radical cervical cancer surgery.The coefficient of conformity index(C-index)and calibration curves were used to evaluate the accuracy and fit.The model was internally validated via bootstrapping(1000 random samples),and the clinical utility of the model was assessed via decision curve analysis(DCA).Results:Four characteristic variables were selected,including preoperative bladder function,postoperative urinary tract infection,surgical approach,and Time of first remove of catheter.They are independent risk factors affecting urinary tract.The risk prediction model exhibited good discrimination performance with a C-index of 0.722(95%CI,0.661-0.783)and was well calibrated.The C-index was 0.708 in internal validation analysis.DCA showed that the risk model was clinically useful for predicting secondary catheterization,and clinical benefits were observed at the decision threshold of≥11%.Conclusion:A novel model was developed to predict the risk of secondary catheterization.The model was based on preoperative bladder dysfunction,postoperative urinary tract infection,surgical approach,and number of days since the removal of the primary catheter.

特立帕肽对尿毒症腹膜透析大鼠钙磷代谢紊乱的作用及其机制探讨

目的探究特立帕肽通过Wnt/β-catenin通路对尿毒症腹膜透析大鼠钙磷代谢紊乱的影响。方法取50只SPF级SD雄性大鼠复制尿毒症模型,模型复制过程中死亡2只,随机取12只大鼠为尿毒症组,剩余36只大鼠随机分为尿毒症腹膜透析假手术组、尿毒症腹膜透析组、特立帕肽组,每组12只。特立帕肽组成功复制尿毒症腹膜透析大鼠模型后,腹腔注射特立帕肽30μg/(kg·d),1次/d,连续6周;尿毒症组、尿毒症腹膜透析组、尿毒症腹膜透析假手术组同时间腹腔注射等量生理盐水。采用酶联免疫吸附试验测定血肌酐、血尿素氮及血钙、血磷水平;苏木精-伊红染色观察肾组织病理学变化;Western blotting测定肾组织Wnt/β-catenin通路蛋白的表达。结果与尿毒症组、尿毒症腹膜透析假手术组比较,尿毒症腹膜透析组、特立帕肽组大鼠血肌酐、血尿素氮水平升高(P<0.05);且特立帕肽组大鼠血肌酐、血尿素氮水平低于尿毒症腹膜透析组(P<0.05)。与尿毒症组、尿毒症腹膜透析假手术组比较,尿毒症腹膜透析组、特立帕肽组大鼠血钙水平降低(P<0.05),血磷水平升高(P<0.05);且特立帕肽组大鼠血钙水平高于尿毒症腹膜透析组(P<0.05),血磷水平低于尿毒症腹膜透析组(P<0.05)。与尿毒症组、尿毒症腹膜透析假手术组比较,尿毒症腹膜透析组、特立帕肽组大鼠肾组织Wnt、β-catenin蛋白相对表达量降低(P<0.05);且特立帕肽组大鼠肾组织Wnt、β-catenin蛋白相对表达量低于尿毒症腹膜透析组(P<0.05)。结论特立帕肽可改善尿毒症腹膜透析大鼠肾功能,提高血清钙、磷水平,进而改善尿毒症腹膜透析大鼠钙磷代谢紊乱,其作用可能是通过抑制Wnt/β-catenin通路活化来实现的。