Assimilation of Doppler Radar Data with an Ensemble 3DEnVar Approach to Improve Convective Forecasting

An ensemble three-dimensional ensemble-variational(3DEnVar)data assimilation(E3DA)system was developed within the Weather Research and Forecasting model’s 3DVar framework to assimilate radar data to improve convective forecasting.In this system,ensemble perturbations are updated by an ensemble of 3DEnVar and the ensemble forecasts are used to generate the flow-dependent background error covariance.The performance of the E3DA system was first evaluated against one experiment without radar DA and one radar DA experiment with 3DVar,using a severe storm case over southeastern China on 5 June 2009.Results indicated that E3DA improved the quantitative forecast skills of reflectivity and precipitation,as well as their spatial distributions in terms of both intensity and coverage over 3DVar.The root-mean-square error of radial velocity from 3DVar was reduced by E3DA,with stronger low-level wind closer to observation.It was also found that E3DA improved the wind,temperature and water vapor mixing ratio,with the lowest errors at the surface and upper levels.3DVar showed moderate improvements in comparison with forecasts without radar DA.A diagnosis of the analysis revealed that E3DA increased vertical velocity,temperature,and humidity corresponding to the added reflectivity,while 3DVar failed to produce these adjustments,because of the lack of reasonable cross-variable correlations.The performance of E3DA was further verified using two convective cases over southern and southeastern China,and the reflectivity forecast skill was also improved over 3DVar.

Effect of Herceptin Combined with Phryl on Serum Tumor Markers and Toxicities in Patients with Breast Cancer

Objective:To study the effect of Herceptin combined with Phryl on serum tumor markers and toxicities in patients with breast cancer.Methods:A total of 66 patients with breast cancer admitted from February 2019 to February 2020 were selected as the research objects.They were divided into two groups by random number table method,with 33 cases in each group.The control group was treated with Herceptin,and the observation group was treated with Fray on the basis of the control group.The levels of serum tumor markers[cancer antigen 15-3(CA15-3),cell protein 19(CYFRA21-1)]and toxic reactions were compared between the two groups before treatment and 4 weeks after treatment.Results:After 4 weeks of treatment,serum CA15-3 and CYFRA21-1 in both groups were lower than before treatment,and those in the observation group were lower than those in the control group,the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).There was significant difference in the incidence of adverse reactions between the two groups(P<0.05).Conclusion:Herceptin combined with Flux in the treatment of breast cancer patients can reduce the level of serum tumor markers,inhibit tumor growth,and reduce the risk of toxicity.

A mixed target estimation fusion algorithm based on Gibbs-GLMB and federated filter

Mixed targets are composed of point targets,extended targets,and group targets.The point target can produce one measurement at most,the extended target and the group target can produce multiple measurements,but the sub-goals of the group target have a certain dependency relationship.At this time,the estimated fusion of the group target is converted to the estimated fusion of sub-targets with formation motion structure,and the distance among the sub-targets is very close,which brings difficulties to the estimated fusion of mixed targets.This paper combines the adjacency matrix in graph theory to dynamically model the discernible group target and introduces the concept of deformation.Also,it uses the finite mixture model method to dynamically model the extended target.Then the Gibbs-GLMB algorithm is used to estimate the state and number of the mixed targets.A dynamic detection federated filter fusion algorithm is proposed to fuse the mixed targets state estimates.The effectiveness of the algorithm is verified in the final simulation.