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基于网络大数据和水文-水动力模型的沿海城市洪水风险与适应 被引量:4
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作者 单薪蒙 杜士强 +4 位作者 王璐阳 张敏 李卫江 胡恒智 温家洪 《科学通报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2021年第28期3772-3784,共13页
气候变化、海平面上升、地面沉降和快速城市化很可能将加剧沿海城市洪水风险.如何定量刻画洪水风险未来变化趋势并进行有效适应是亟待解决的前沿科学问题.为此,我们提出了一套多学科的综合方法:(1)基于网络大数据和机器学习对承灾体分... 气候变化、海平面上升、地面沉降和快速城市化很可能将加剧沿海城市洪水风险.如何定量刻画洪水风险未来变化趋势并进行有效适应是亟待解决的前沿科学问题.为此,我们提出了一套多学科的综合方法:(1)基于网络大数据和机器学习对承灾体分布与暴露价值进行精细尺度建模;(2)基于水文-水动力模型对未来极端风暴洪水进行淹没情景模拟;(3)针对不同情景进行经济损失风险分析和适应措施的成本效益评估.以上海为例,将上述方法应用于综合评估极端风暴洪水情景下的住宅建筑风险、未来演化(2050年)和适应措施的成本效益.结果表明,海平面上升和地面沉降将显著加剧上海的洪水风险,RCP4.5、RCP8.5和RCP8.5 High-end三种典型浓度情景下住宅建筑的年期望损失在2050年达7.0亿元~9.0亿元,是当前结果的1.6~2.0倍.实施干适应措施和湿适应措施可分别将年期望损失减少76%~79%和88%~90%;并且两种措施均具有可观的成本效益,净现值分别达28.4亿元~55.3亿元和58.5亿元~99.4亿元,效益/成本比分别为1.9~2.4和7.9~9.8.上述研究可为科学理解和有效适应上海未来洪水风险提供依据,该综合分析方法也可应用于其他沿海城市的洪水风险和适应策略研究. 展开更多
关键词 网络大数据 海平面上升 风暴洪水 风险分析 适应措施 成本效益分析
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Chinese Built-up Land in Floodplains Moving Closer to Freshwaters
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作者 Yongqiang Fang shiqiang du +3 位作者 Jiahong Wen Min Zhang Jiayi Fang Min Liu 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第3期355-366,共12页
Human proximity to water and its dynamics are important to understanding the socio-hydrological dilemma between using floodplains and avoiding flood risk.However,previous studies have not distinguished between the wat... Human proximity to water and its dynamics are important to understanding the socio-hydrological dilemma between using floodplains and avoiding flood risk.However,previous studies have not distinguished between the water proximity of built-up land in floodplains(BLF)and the water proximity of built-up land outside floodplains(BLOF).This article provides a new and spatiotemporal perspective of the BLF water proximities for understanding the changing flood risk in China.The results show that China’s BLFs had an average water proximity of 5.41 km in 2014.Most of the BLFs(62%,25.889103 km2)were located within 3 km of waterbodies.From 1990 to 2014,China’s BLFs increased rapidly by 81%from23.069103 km2 to 41.749103 km2,of which a large portion(57%)was concentrated in water surroundings(≤km),shortening the distance between BLFs and waterbodies by 169 m.The BLF growth concentrated in water surroundings even in areas where BLFs have an overall increasing distance from waterbodies.Both the increases in the BLFs and their proximity to waterbodies can increase flood exposure and exacerbate flood risk.The scientific community and policymakers should pay attention not only to the volume of BLF growth,but also its spatial relationship with waterbodies. 展开更多
关键词 China Floodplains Flood exposure Landscape sustainability Socio-hydrology URBANIZATION
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