A representative CO_(2) emissions pathway for China toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2℃target

In 2021,China updated its nationally determined contributions(NDCs)under the Paris Agreement,which prompts a more accurate mea-surement of its emissions inventory and a reasonable pathway toward carbon neutrality by 2060.This study reviews the estimates using the bottom-up emissions factor method or the top-down atmospheric CO_(2) concentration inversion method to derive China's CO_(2) emissions inventory and finds that CO_(2) emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes in Chinese mainland range from 11.3-12.0 GtCO_(2) in 2021.Based on a comprehensive review of pathways proposed by domestic and international studies and an analysis of the origins of their differences,we proposed the Tsinghua-CMA pathway that coordinates the 2℃global temperature rise control target with China's current CO_(2) emissions status and mitigation policies.The pathway requires China's CO_(2) emissions to peak around 2028-2029 at about 12.8 GtCO_(2),then decline steadily to about 11.2 GtCO_(2) in 2035,3.6 GtCO_(2) in 2050,and 0.9 GtCO_(2) in 2060.Compared to a reference scenario without updated NDCs,this pathway would result in an economic cost of about 0.9%cumulative GDP between 2020 and 2060,only 1/4-1/3 of the cost associated with pathways that align with the 1.5℃target.We recommended that China improves emissions accounting by cross-validating bottom-up and top-down approaches and regularly updating the pathway toward carbon neutrality while maintaining consistency with its evolving CO_(2) emissions inventory,policy trends,and global CO_(2) emission budget updates.