Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25

We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days(SLDs)during the descending phase of solar cycles 11-24 to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle 25.For this purpose,in addition to SLD,we also consider the geomagnetic activity(aa index)during the descending phase of a given cycle.A very strong correlation of the SLD(0.68)and aa index(0.86)during the descending phase of a given cycle with the maximum amplitude of next solar cycle has been estimated.The empirical relationship led us to deduce the amplitude of cycle 25 to be 99.13±14.97 and 104.23±17.35 using SLD and aa index,respectively as predictors.Both the predictors provide comparable amplitude for solar cycle 25 and reveal that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than cycle 24.Further,we predict that the maximum of cycle 25 is likely to occur between February and March 2024.While the aa index has been utilized extensively in the past,this work establishes SLDs as another potential candidate for predicting the characteristics of the next cycle.

Study of temporal and spectral characteristics of the X-ray emission from solar flares

Temporal and spectral characteristics of X-ray emission from 60 flares of intensity ≥C class observed by the Solar X-ray Spectrometer （SOXS） during 2003-2011 are presented. We analyze the X-ray emission observed in four and three energy bands by the Si and Cadmium-Zinc-Telluride （CZT） detectors, respectively. The number of peaks in the intensity profile of the flares varies between 1 and 3. We find moderate correlation （R ~=0.2） between the rise time and the peak flux of the first peak of the flare irrespective of energy band, which is indicative of its energy-independent nature. Moreover, the magnetic field complexity of the flaring region is found to be highly anti-correlated （R = 0.61） with the rise time of the flares while positively correlated （R = 0.28） with the peak flux of the flare. The time delay between the peak of the X-ray emission in a given energy band and that in 25-30keV decreases with increasing energy, suggesting conduction cooling is dominant in the lower energies. Analysis of 340 spectra from 14 flares reveals that the peak of differential emission measure （DEM） evolution is delayed by 60-360 s relative to that of the temperature, and this time delay is inversely proportional to the peak flux of the flare. We conclude that temporal and intensity characteristics of flares are dependent on energy as well as the magnetic field configuration of the active region.