Population aging in China from a multidimensional,comparative perspective

In recent years,perhaps more than any others,changes in China’s population have been under the spotlight.Issues relating to population aging and stagnation/decline have been presented as a near existential threat to the political,social,and economic future of the country.The responses to these challenges have typically revolved around seeking a‘demographic response’-namely more babies.These responses,however,are deaf to both the challenges of family formation in contemporary China,as well as the timespan needed for such policies to affect already stressed systems and institutions.Rather,policies which reformed such stressed systems and address the lifecycle challenges and opportunities of population aging are urgently required.This requires an improved,multidimensional‘problem definition’as well as con-sidering comparative approaches to facilitate policy learning.This commentary explores these issues and identifies how the papers which make up this special issue of China Population and Development Studies contribute to developing our under-standing of aging from a multidimensional and comparative perspective.

A quantitative analysis of socioeconomics of illicit drug use for improving targeted interventions in Hong Kong

Illicit drug use is a critical and challenging issue globally,but there is a lack of thorough understanding of the underlying mechanisms of drug use,which is essential for policy interventions,in many threatened places.This study aims to explore the socioeconomic determinants of drug use to support policy design in Hong Kong and other regions with similar issues.Multiple linear regression models and fixed-effects models are employed to examine the socioeconomic determinants of drug use based on the most comprehensive data on drug use and population in Hong Kong from 1991 to 2016.The estimates show that demographic and socioeconomic characteristics are important predictors of illicit drug use.The highest rate of drug use is observed for people aged between 20 and 30,as well as for those with primary education.Compared with males,the female drug use rate is 15(or 46)per 10,000 people lower for the newly(or previously)addicted cases.A 10%increase in monthly income is associated with a 14%drop in drug use rate at the district level.The average annual expenditure on drug use is USD 32.6 million in Hong Kong.Drug policies shall pay more attention to these at-risk groups,and shall consider more financial support to lower the drug use rates.

The lowest fertility rates in the world?Evidence from the 2015 Chinese 1% sample census

As the world’s largest population,the total fertility rate(TFR)of China is of global significance.Furthermore,the introduction of recent reforms designed to lessen restrictions on childbearing have received wide attention.As well as outlining the fertility rate in China as derived from the 20151%sample census,in this short paper we seek to explore the impact of the 2013 reforms to fertility policy which allowed millions of eligible couples to bear a second child.We performed standard demographic analysis on the 20151%sample census to calculate both TFR and parity-specific fertility rates for both the total population and specific sub-groups.The overall national TFR from the census was calculated to be 1.047(down from 1.188 in 2010).TFR in urban areas was 0.914 compared to 1.265 in rural areas.TFR among migrant women was 0.896 compared to 1.115 for non-migrants.While a modest increase in second-births can be identified,a decline in first birth rates offsets it.Even allowing for a generous margin of error,China’s fertility rates appear to be extremely low and declining further.The impact of the recent reforms appears muted,especially in the face of declining first birth rates.The TFRs as calculated from the mini-census would be the lowest national rates in the world.Further research is required to triangulate these findings from other sources.The impact of the two-child policy may be muted.

Demographic and social anxieties:the second demographic transition in Asia

Asia is now,predominantly,a continent of‘low’fertility-one of the features of the Second Demographic Transition.Across the continent,this feature of our population has sprouted concern and anxiety,primarily expressed in macroeconomic terms.Low fertility is directly linked to the twin challenges of population aging and stagnation/decline.We know,however,that maximizing human capital and institutional reform is a much more effective way of responding to these two‘grand challenges’in the short-and medium-term.Why,then,is there such a panic about the lack of babies?In this commentary,I argue that much of the concern is grounded in a‘fear’of some of the features of the Second Demographic Transition(SDT)-or,at least,a caricatured version of it-taking root in Asian societies.But how concerned should they be?The papers in this special issue clearly demonstrate that the pathway towards‘full SDT’has developed in a very uneven way,perhaps so much so that some may argue the SDT is not a viable tool for understanding family change in(much of)Asia.However,this caricature of what the SDT‘is’can be unhelpful.There is no doubt that ideals and attitudes are changing(even if many others are not).Therefore,if we rather consider the SDT as a“general narrative that leaves room for many sub-narratives”,the evidence from Asia clearly demonstrates that there are many sub-narratives operating within a general transition towards some of the key societal and familial features of the SDT.

Effect of Sex Composition of Children on the Gender of Next Birth in the Context of Low Fertility in Rural China

China currently has the world's most skewed national sex ratio at birth.In this paper,we use data from China's 2001 National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey and employ hierarchical logistic models to study how macro factors(mainly fertility policy and economic indicators,as represented by per capita GDP of the village units sampled in this research)and micro factors(mainly fertility intention and sex composition of children)affect the gender of the next birth.We find that the effect of fertility policies is intertwined with the sex composition of children already born.For those couples who have had a son(or sons),fertility policy exerts no effect;but for those with only daughters,the effect is significant.Furthermore,fertility intention,independent from fertility policy,has a significant effect on the gender of the next birth.