A Precursory Signal of June-July Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin: December-January Tropospheric Temperature over the Tibetan Plateau

The prediction of summer precipitation over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)has long been challenging,especially during June-July(JJ),when the mei-yu generally occurs.This study explores the potential signal for the YRB precipitation in JJ and reveals that the Tibetan Plateau tropospheric temperature(TPTT)in the middle and upper levels during the preceding December-January(DJ)is significantly correlated with JJ YRB precipitation.The close connection between the DJ TPTT anomaly with JJ YRB precipitation may be due to the joint modulation of the DJ ENSO and spring TP soil temperatures.The lagged response to an anomalously cold TPTT during the preceding DJ is a TPTT that is still anomalously cold during the following JJ.The lower TPTT can lead to an anomalous anticyclone to the east of Lake Baikal,an anomalous cyclone at the middle latitudes of East Asia,and an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific.Meanwhile,the East Asian westerly jet shifts southward in response to the meridional thermal gradient caused by the colder troposphere extending from the TP to the east of Lake Baikal.The above-mentioned circulation anomalies constitute the positive anomaly of the East Asia-Pacific pattern,known to be conducive to more precipitation over the YRB.Since the DJ TPTT contains both the land(TP soil temperature)and ocean(ENSO)signals,it has a closer relationship with the JJ precipitation over the YRB than the DJ ENSO alone.Therefore,the preceding DJ TPTT can be considered an alternative predictor of the JJ YRB precipitation.

Global climate effects of summer Tibetan Plateau

Because the Tibetan Plateau (TP)has the highest elevation in the world and is a key area affecting the Asian extreme weather and climate events,studies on the Tibetan Plateau meteorology have been highly concerned by the international scientific community.In the late 1970s.Ye and Gao [1]reveled the climatic characteristics of the TP heating and its connection with global and regional atmospheric circulations.With the seasonal evolution from winter to summer,strong surface sensible heat regulates the timing of the establishment of the Asian summer monsoon [2].However,Boos and Kuang [3]addressed that the large-scale South Asian summer monsoon is unaffected by removal of the plateau,provided that the narrow orography of the Himalayas and adjacent mountain ranges is preserved,and revealed the domi- nance of the uplift of the Himalayas in the formation of the present South Asian summer monsoon.Then,does this indicate a weak effect of the summer TP thermal forcing on the variability of the present South Asian monsoon and larger-scale climates?Some dis- cussions have been also stimulated in Science [4].

Simulation of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Annular Modes by CAMS-CSM

As leading modes of the planetary-scale atmospheric circulation in the extratropics, the Northern Hemisphere(NH)annular mode(NAM) and Southern Hemisphere(SH) annular mode(SAM) are important components of global circulation, and their variabilities substantially impact the climate in mid-high latitudes. A 35-yr(1979-2013) simulation by the climate system model developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM) was carried out based on observed sea surface temperature and sea ice data. The ability of CAMS-CSM in simulating horizontal and vertical structures of the NAM and SAM, relation of the NAM to the East Asian climate, and temporal variability of the SAM is examined and validated against the observational data. The results show that CAMS-CSM captures the zonally symmetric and out-of-phase variations of sea level pressure anomaly between the midlatitudes and polar zones in the extratropics of the NH and SH. The model has also captured the equivalent barotropic structure in tropospheric geopotential height and the meridional shifts of the NH and SH jet systems associated with the NAM and SAM anomalies. Furthermore, the model is able to reflect the variability of northern and southern Ferrel cells corresponding to the NAM and SAM anomalies. The model reproduces the observed relationship of the boreal winter NAM with the East Asian trough and air temperature over East Asia. It also captures the upward trend of the austral summer SAM index during recent decades. However, compared with the observation, the model shows biases in both the intensity and center locations of the NAM's and SAM's horizontal and vertical structures. Specifically, it overestimates their intensities.