Mangrove forests as a nature-based solution for coastal flood protection:Biophysical and ecological considerations

Nature-based coastal protection is increasingly recognised as a potentially sustainable and cost-effective solution to reduce coastal flood risk.It uses coastal ecosystems such as mangrove forests to create resilient designs for coastal flood protection.However,to use mangroves effectively as a nature-based measure for flood risk reduction,we must understand the biophysical processes that govern risk reduction capacity through mangrove ecosystem size and structure.In this perspective,we evaluate the current state of knowledge on local physical drivers and ecological processes that determine mangrove functioning as part of a nature-based flood defence.We show that the forest properties that comprise coastal flood protection are well-known,but models cannot yet pinpoint how spatial heterogeneity of the forest structure affects the capacity for wave or surge attenuation.Overall,there is relatively good understanding of the ecological processes that drive forest structure and size,but there is a lack of knowledge on how daily bed-level dynamics link to long-term biogeomorphic forest dynamics,and on the role of combined stressors influencing forest retreat.Integrating simulation models of forest structure under changing physical(e.g.due to sea-level change)and ecological drivers with hydrodynamic attenuation models will allow for better projections of long-term natural coastal protection.

Future sea level rise along the coast of China and adjacent region under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming

Although future sea level rise along the China coast has been projected by various studies for different representative concentration pathways(RCPs),the projections for different warming thresholds,e.g.1.5℃ and 2.0℃,have not been done specifically for this region,to the best of our knowledge.We provide such a projection here based on the climate projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5).The projections are given for 20 tide-gauge stations along the coast of China,Korea,Japan,and Vietnam.Vertical land motion(VLM)is also estimated for stations that have tide gauge records and satellite altimetry both covering the period of 1993-2018.Local land motion(LLM)is then estimated by subtracting the land motion due to glacial isostatic adjustment(GIA)from VLM.Without considering LLM,sea level rise by 2100 at median probability is projected to be 38-49 cm relative to the average sea level over 1986-2005 under warming of 1.5℃,and increase to 46-57 cm when the warming threshold is increased to 2.0℃.The steric component is the main contributor to this increase in sea level.Inclusion of LLM will not affect the sea level increase between the two warming thresholds,but it will make the local sea level rise by 2100 at certain locations substantially higher(up to 36 cm)or lower(up to 13 cm).