Influence of uncertainty factors of input parameters on results of the estimation of seismic hazard has been researched.It is found that the largest deviations,from seismic hazard maps designed on the basis of average...Influence of uncertainty factors of input parameters on results of the estimation of seismic hazard has been researched.It is found that the largest deviations,from seismic hazard maps designed on the basis of average values of distribution of seismic mode and seismic load parameters,may arise due to the imprecise depth of earthquake sources(H),uncertain estimations of seismic potential(Мmax) and slope of recurrence curve(g).The contribution of such uncertainty factors,like imprecise definition of seismic activity А10,incorrect choice of prevailing type of a motion in the source,using regional laws of attenuation of seismic load intensity in distance instead of local once are substantially small.For Eastern Uzbekistan,it was designed the seismic hazard map with the highest value which takes into account every possible factors of uncertainty in parameters of seismic mode and seismic load.展开更多
In this paper, the author proposed a methodology to reveal expected seismic activation places for coming years by a complex of forecasting parameters of a seismic mode. Areas in Uzbekistan where currently observed ano...In this paper, the author proposed a methodology to reveal expected seismic activation places for coming years by a complex of forecasting parameters of a seismic mode. Areas in Uzbekistan where currently observed anomalies in various parameters of a seismic mode has been revealed. By number of displayed abnormal signs the areas has been ranked based on probability of occurrence of strong earthquakes there. It has prepared schemes of the synoptic forecast of expected seismic activation places in case of occurrence of strong earthquakes in the Central-Asian region.展开更多
文摘Influence of uncertainty factors of input parameters on results of the estimation of seismic hazard has been researched.It is found that the largest deviations,from seismic hazard maps designed on the basis of average values of distribution of seismic mode and seismic load parameters,may arise due to the imprecise depth of earthquake sources(H),uncertain estimations of seismic potential(Мmax) and slope of recurrence curve(g).The contribution of such uncertainty factors,like imprecise definition of seismic activity А10,incorrect choice of prevailing type of a motion in the source,using regional laws of attenuation of seismic load intensity in distance instead of local once are substantially small.For Eastern Uzbekistan,it was designed the seismic hazard map with the highest value which takes into account every possible factors of uncertainty in parameters of seismic mode and seismic load.
文摘In this paper, the author proposed a methodology to reveal expected seismic activation places for coming years by a complex of forecasting parameters of a seismic mode. Areas in Uzbekistan where currently observed anomalies in various parameters of a seismic mode has been revealed. By number of displayed abnormal signs the areas has been ranked based on probability of occurrence of strong earthquakes there. It has prepared schemes of the synoptic forecast of expected seismic activation places in case of occurrence of strong earthquakes in the Central-Asian region.
