The Influence of Islam on the Assessment of Earthquake Hazards and Seismic Risk

The article has been retracted due to the investigation of complaints received against it. The paper is withdrawn due to paper duplication which has been published by the author years before. This paper published in Vol.1 No.1 1-12 (pages), 2012, has been removed from this site.

Seismic Risk Perception in Al-Marj, Libya: A Case Study after the 1963 Earthquake

Individual beliefs, knowledge, and perception play a vital role in understanding and coping with the consequences of earthquakes. These perceptions then mold the broader perceptions of risk and danger held by communities, which ultimately create public policy. This survey study was designed and conducted to assess the perceptions of seismic hazard and risk of earthquake survivors and residents in Al-Marj, Libya—a city razed in a 1963 tremor. In 2019, 364 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed for their knowledge and perception of earthquakes. Surveys were conducted in Arabic and included demographic and narrative questions in addition to Likert-scaled responses. A number of predictable, surprising, and valuable correlations were found. It was found that during earthquakes most respondents prayed to Allah, or did nothing, in comparison to escape, seeking shelter, or running for help. The majority believed their neighborhoods were unsafe while questions illiciting some aspect of quake recurrence caused a complete refusal to answer;they commented “I do not know” or “only God knows”. Most respondents did not consider preparation to be important, but younger respondents were relatively more prepared. Surprisingly, highly educated respondents were less prepared, however, they also attributed earthquakes to tectonic slipping and not divine retaliation or retribution. However, less-educated respondents stated “I do not know”, “Allah punishes”, or “Allah tests the believers”. Most participants considered themselves well-informed about earthquakes from popular media sources (internet, TV, magazines). These findings were vital in gaining an insight into hazard perception and high-risk behavior in a seismically active region like Libya. When natural hazard recurrence (i.e. earthquakes) are better understood, then the potential consequences of injury, damages, and deaths may be assessed, and an overall plan to produce sustainable disaster management strategies and decrease risk can be created and implemented.

Creating a Libyan Earthquake Archive: From Classical Times to the Present

Libya’s seismicity has been considered relatively minor, however, several earthquakes of magnitude larger than 5.0 have occurred since Roman times. The scope of this study is to identify and chronicle past seismic frequency and magnitude in Libya by translating, analyzing, and compiling historical sources and archaeological data of Libya’s seismic history. The earliest references to earthquakes have been found in historic records and archaeological data since 262 AD. Archaeological evidence was found to support Latin records that stated that the shock destroyed much Cyrene also affecting most of the Province of Cyrenaica. In 704 AD, a large shock destroyed towns and villages across the Sebha region. While in 1183, a violent tremor shook Tripoli. In 1935 and 1939, a series of large earthquakes struck the Hun Graben area, including one of magnitude 7.1 on April 19, 1935—considered the strongest earthquake in Libyan history. The coast of northeastern Libya in Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar areas continues to be a seismically active region. In 1963, the Roman outpost of Barca (modern Al-Marj) was razed by an earthquake of moderate magnitude (5.6 Ml). Offshore earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.6 and 4.9 occurred in Tripoli in 1974 and 1976. In addition, several tremors of 4 to 5.6 magnitude were recorded in northeastern and northwestern Libya between 1990 and 2019. With little previous knowledge of Libya’s quake history, an estimate of seismic periodicity and event consequences is problematic. Such an archive of seismic hazards (frequency, location, magnitude) is fundamental to estimating seismic risk (future events, consequences).

Seismic Risk Perception Assessment of Earthquake Survivors: A Case Study from the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake

Following the catastrophic earthquake of October 2005 in Kashmir, Pakistan, 215 surveys were administered to earthquake survivors in villages within 50 miles (80 km) of the epicenter near the town of Muzaffarabad. The survey questionnaires were designed to address perceptions of seismic knowledge, event-related behavior, and opinions of local, regional, and national seismic preparedness and mitigation-representing a rare opportunity in seismic risk assessment. Some of the findings were similar to previous research results, while some were counter-intuitive, surprising, and valuable. Overwhelmingly, respondents stated that they ran away after the quake (vs. praying, taking cover, screaming, or doing nothing). Their trust in local and national governments regarding future earthquake preparedness and mitigation was high (~50%), contrary to most prior studies. Less than five percent of respondents believed that “no quake would occur again”, while nearly 75% responded that another quake would occur within 5 - 10 years, another opinion contrary to previous research. This research revealed new aspects of risk perception in the predominant Muslim communities of Northern Pakistan regarding recurrence, post-event action, and regional preparedness.